Portugal has become accustomed to reacting to natural disasters as if they were exceptional events. However, the increasing frequency of extreme phenomena – storms, fires, prolonged droughts or flash floods – demonstrates precisely the opposite: climate risk has ceased to be episodic and has become structural. Persisting in a reactive logic means accepting recurring economic losses, additional pressure on public accounts and accumulated social fragility.
Although the Portuguese economy today presents greater macroeconomic robustness and institutional capacity than in the past, it remains insufficiently prepared to face extreme events. Annual investment in climate adaptation remains below what is necessary (…). A recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute indicates that Portugal invests around 170 million euros annually in adaptation measures to climate risk, which represents only 43% of what is needed to match the protection levels of more developed economies. (…).
The most exposed sectors illustrate this vulnerability well. Agriculture, forestry, tourism, energy, telecommunications or logistics depend directly on natural conditions or the continuity of critical physical networks. When these fail, the impacts spread quickly to employment, exports and investor confidence. Economic resilience has therefore ceased to be an environmental concept and has become a competitiveness imperative.
Preparing for the future requires structural change. Investing in more robust infrastructure, integrating climate risk into territorial planning and investment decisions, strengthening insurance mechanisms and promoting business continuity plans are essential steps. But the real transformation lies in the ability to anticipate, as preventing always costs less, in economic, social and environmental terms, than rebuilding.
Here, the role of public authorities is decisive – in spatial planning, investment in resilient infrastructure, creating incentives and mobilizing financing. But private agents are equally central, as they must incorporate risk into management, innovation and value chain strategies. Resilience is built in a network, not by decree.
In fact, this is not a “problem” exclusive to the State. The private economy also needs to prepare for this type of situation, minimizing potential risks. Among the concrete measures available to companies are taking out insurance suitable for natural risks (…). Furthermore, there is a need to adopt monitoring and early warning strategies, digitalization of critical operations and sectoral cooperation to share information and resources, reinforcing the collective capacity to respond and recover from extreme events.
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