But there is an obvious problem for the Iranians: anyone who accepts today to join the government or assume military leadership knows that they will have an average life expectancy that is measured in days. The American and Israeli intelligence machine is operating with unprecedented precision. Each new name that emerges to replace the dead immediately becomes a target. He governs himself, at this moment, with the permanent sensation that the ground could open at any moment.
On the side of the USA and Israel, the bet is clear and involves bringing about the fall of the regime. The message sent to the Iranian population is transparent. This is the opportunity to rise up. But there is a limit that cannot be ignored. Without troops on the ground, the United States cannot guarantee the success of any revolution. Recent history leaves a stark warning. In 1991, Shiites in southern Iraq rose up against Saddam Hussein, encouraged by Washington. They were abandoned and massacred, at the hands of the same troops that the international coalition led by the United States had just defeated and expelled from Kuwait.
Trump is thus making the riskiest move of his Presidency. If it fails, the Middle East will become even more unstable and the wounded but survivable Iranian regime will be even more aggressive, unpredictable and determined to challenge the West. However, if he wins – and that is the prize Trump is really seeking – he could redraw the political map of the region.
Remember that Iran is the last power in the Middle East that refuses any understanding with the State of Israel. Most Arab countries, one after another, have stopped seeing Israel as an existential enemy since the 1970s, whether declared or tacit. Tehran, on the contrary, finances and feeds a network of armed groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, which keep the war against Israel and the West alive. The end of this opposition would open the door to a new Middle East and perhaps even to an era of unprecedented stability, of “possible peace” between Israel and the Islamic world.
But this future will only be possible if the US and Israel know how to be magnanimous in victory. Lasting peace in the region requires that Palestinians can finally live with dignity, freedom and self-determination in their own land. Without this, any military victory will be just another chapter in a conflict that never ends.
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