Iran is about to enter the war and Spain is urging it

For a long time, the conflicts in the Middle East permeated Europe because the crises led to indirect consequences: energy, terrorism or migration. These were important issues, but geographically distant.

Real developments are about to change that perception.

Missiles fired towards Western installations in the Eastern Mediterranean are enough to note that the conflict may dangerously spill over into European space.

But the truth I find in Europe is not necessarily in these countries.

To understand this, it is worth recalling what the Iranian regime actually is.

Iran is not just an authoritarian state within the political complex of the Middle East. It is essentially an oligarchy built under the guidance of religious and military power. A system controlled by the clerical elite and the Revolutionary Guard, which combines internal political control, geopolitical ambitions and a militant interpretation of political Islam.

In other words, oligárquica theocracia with estal capacity.

This feature explains a large part of your external strategy. Unlike other authoritarian regimes that operate mainly in the national sphere, the Islamic Republic was conceived from its inception as a political project with regional influence.

This has translated over the decades into the creation of a network of armed organizations, militias and movements capable of projecting much more power behind their fronts.

In Iraq, military forces aligned with Tehran form part of a political and military alliance with a regional operational capability.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah represents the most consolidated example of this model: an armed organization deeply embedded in the country’s political systembut ideologically they support the Iranian regime.

In Yemen, the Houthis have recently demonstrated their ability to operate international sea lanes and attack strategic targets.

This system of armed actors represents one of the most effective tools of Iranian power and also one of the most dangerous in Europe. Because the same red color allows the regime a much greater presence outside of the conventional battlefield.

“Europe does not speak with one voice. The Union’s foreign policy continues to be the result of twenty different national sensitivities.”

In an escalator scenario, Europe could directly or indirectly transform itself into the scenario of attacks, sabotage or impulsive destabilizing actions from which it entered.

This situation (indirect violence) is strategically more important for Europe than any missile exchange in the Mediterranean. A terrorist attack in a European capital is not only a security problem. It’s a political earthquake.

And this is where European fragility appears. According to Bruselas, the reaction of the institutions was cautious.

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyeninsisted on the need to avoid regional escalation, while the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kája Kallasováwarned of the possibility of an expansion of the conflict.

“We are deeply concerned“, as always.

But the reality is that Europe does not speak with just one voice. The Union’s foreign policy continues to be the result of twenty different national sensitivities.

There is a hard core of Eastern European countries strongly aligned with the United States and with very clear positions in favor of Israel.

Other governments, especially in the center of the continent, are much more reactive to the fact that the Union is taking up a demásiao active geopolitical banner. yes and no, it coincides with your own national interests.

And there are such leaders who interpret every international crisis in the field of domestic politics.

In this context, the Spanish attitude is particularly revealing.

The Spanish government has warned that it will not allow the United States to use the Red and Morón joint bases for military operations against Iran. As a result, various aircraft deployed in these installations left Spanish territory.

The decision finds Spain again in a unique position within its strategic environment.

While other European allies have shown willingness to support the United States in collective defense, Pedro Sánchez decided to distance himself from this line. It is a new example of a patron that recurs often.

Spain intends to support two discussions simultaneously. On the one hand, the government participates in European foreign policy and Western security architecture through OTAN.

Furthermore, the positions contain the internal political discourse of the government and its members openly hostile to the United States and deeply critical of Israel.

This discussion may seem useful in the logic of domestic politics, carefully polarized by Sanchism. But it is hard to sustain when the strategic reality is observed.

Spain is part of OTAN. Share collective security agreements with your European partners. It forms part of a political and military bloc that, in the event of escalation, will inevitably connect Europe with the Western world.

In other words: at a decisive moment, Spanish foreign policy will not be decided by parliamentary speeches or ideological commitments. The alliance will decide that.

And now there is a contradiction that the government is trying to avoid. It cannot be part of the Western strategic architecture and at the same time act systematically against its own members.

With war coming faster, Europe needs even more statements of concern. It requires clarity, signature and one vote.

The European Parliament demonstrated this in black when a large majority (including the European Socialists) passed a strong resolution against the Iranian regime’s repression and in defense of the fundamental rights of the Iranian people.

This is the spirit of unity that must guide politics outside the world today. And Spain played it well.

Become part of an alliance it also means not giving up when the rest of the choir chooses to sing the same score.

*** Antonio López-Istúriz is an MEP and member of the Asuntos external committee.