Theory of the Center-Derecha español ¿PP y VOX negocian mal?

When they achieved the formation of governance, there was a turning point in a short time. In Aragon, the anticipation of 2023 took a year. In Extremadura, Castile-León, … the same thing happened. The government agreement was made at best in the parliamentary support of VOX or in parliamentary resolutions.

The history of Spanish democracy helps to develop the theory of the Spanish center.

The Spanish center governs only the national level with an absolute mayor or seeks one.

UCD governed from 1977 to 1982. UCD received the votes of this electorate. A su derecha Alianza Popular quedó marginal.

Catorce años after the center returned to government with the PP.

The PP was the result of a merger (absorption?) of the AP led by Manuel Fraga with the rest of the UCD (Christian Democrats from PDP-DC, Liberals from UL and independents, including some Social Democrats). In fact, there was nothing significant on his side.

But there was no Fraga to rule Spain. The former José María Aznar. A more focused leader.

Six years ago, in 2011, he managed the PP with Mariano Rajoy. The PP does not have the authority to decide on its absolute majority.

So from now on only the union “la derecha al centro” or “from the center to the derecha” has enough votes to govern. For this reason, the leader must focus on attracting voters at the center.

The process seems to be:

1. El centroderecha gobierna. On the other hand, there is no significant electoral power.

2. After one or two legislative terms, the center loses power, as part of its electorate swings to the izquierda, and another part takes refuge in an alternative rather to the deceived right, so as not to see its full aspirations.

3. A powerless center is in crisis. First, the municipal teams with the strength they have the most behind are combined. Luego are their managers. Entonce creates fusion/absorption.

4. The resulting force, expanding its electoral spectrum and its interests, changes leaders and becomes “central”.

5. With these elections, we have expanded the gana center and the gobierno.

6. You turn to empezar.

This continued. from the end of the center of the side to the power to merge with the back, a few years late (5.7?).

If this theory holds, we are now experiencing a phase where the right side of the PP begins to grow. The question is that over time there will be a merger that ya hizo AP on the sides of UCD. In this case, VOX will absorb the remaining PP. However, it turns out to be too late.

If VOX is ever absorbed by the electoral party PP, as Abascal and his team hope, it will be within a year. PP/VOX will form a single organic structure. It is therefore likely that a non-Sanchist coalition will follow in power.

For this government merger to happen, it would tend to be moderate in order to absorb the centrist electorate and boost the right. What you will need, among other things, is to change the leader. The result will be less radical than the next leaders.

Sánchez and his company are interested in reporting to VOX as “extreme right”, for the union to return to the power of the center.

This theory may be wrong. Just the fact that you brought it up allows you to go back to the meditations to fix it. As?

Avoiding the desert traversal of the center with PP and VOX leaders who do not deceive their respective voters. As?

By agreeing to governance that maintains the expectations of their respective constituents. Creating programs with what they have in common, solving discrepancies for the future.

Otherwise, it will take some time for the voters of this center to find a Spanish government that satisfies them. Also, due to joining the government, they have changed their leadership and therefore they will be dissatisfied. For voters on his side, he will be left behind social democracy and for centrists on the opposite side.

They are the other two who are on the PSOE side. Always be there and always be there.

** JR Pin Arboledas is an IESE professor.