Great fragmentation

The international order is undergoing a profound structural transformation, marking the end of an era of rapid globalization and the beginning of what the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) calls the Great Fragmentation.

This new period is characterized by the weakening of the dominance of the superpowers (EEU and China), the economic decline of traditional powers (such as Japan and Germany) and the rapid growth of media powers that undermine the conventional multilateral system (such as Indonesia, the Arab Emirates and Turkey).

In a world where military gas has reached $2.7 billion, future stability will depend on how these new powers exercise increasing influence. These nations cannot firmly align themselves with the bloc until they practice strategic autonomy by balancing security issues with the West and economic ties with the East to maximize their manipulation options.

This map shows the true geographic distribution between superpowers, great powers, media and emerging countries, highlighting the concentration of power in the trans-Pacific region:

We track the nominal PIB of the power groups to see if the economic gap between the big and media powers has widened: countries such as Brazil and South Korea have consistently exceeded Russia’s PIB:

Looking back over the past decade, we can see the fragmentation of the 2008 financial crisis marking the beginning of the current era of disobedience to common rules:

Here we can observe the countries closest to the USA (blue), China (red) and both (purple). Confirmation of the bilateral influence of ambassadorial powers since 2015:

We are witnessing the development of the material capacity (recursion, industrial production) of traditional powers before the permanent growth of media powers and especially superpowers:

The number of media forces has doubled since the end of the French war, from 8 to 16 nations:

The warning is that debt will exceed 50% of GDP by 2030 at average performance levels, limiting its future ability to reverse:

We look forward to the task of elderly dependency if it leads to a demographic bifurcation: while countries like South Korea grow rapidly, powers like Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates maintain a young and vital workforce:

The world has changed from unipolar or simply bipolar to a multipolar and fragmented system. I don’t think there will be any blood in the river, but I believe we will experience a new “Fried War” that hopes for a new military supercycle.

It didn’t help that the American president could struggle for power with Greenland. Trump’s book The Art of Negotiation is based on three keys: 1) think big and maximize your options, 2) use vents as a table, 3) be unpredictable and pushed to the extreme. In my opinion, the root of the problem is that being constantly annoyed is annoying and slowing down forces others to take action.

The combined PIB of the EU, UK, Norway, Switzerland, Australia and Canada is equivalent to the EEUU. So we don’t have a team to send to this group, but we don’t have to acknowledge the recent reflections of Mark Carney, Canada’s first minister, in Davos: “Nostalgia is not a strategy.”