The tariffs introduced in 2025 by US President Donald Trump have increased costs for companies, particularly for medium-sized North American ones, according to a report published this Thursday, 19th, by the JPMorgan Chase Institute.
The study points out that the economic stability of medium-sized companies “was interrupted by a strong increase [das taxas alfandegárias] from April 2025”, coinciding with the implementation of the first tariff increases, with total payments continuing to increase throughout 2025 “and ultimately reaching a level approximately three times higher than that recorded until the beginning of 2025”.
In this sense, although many new medium-sized companies started paying tariffs in 2025, the sharp increase in payments was mainly due to medium-sized companies already paying tariffs before October 2024, which may indicate that the increase in tariffs mainly increased the cost burden for existing importers, rather than distributing it among a broader group of tariff-paying companies.
Furthermore, the document points out that changes in tariff policy during 2025 not only substantially increased tariffs in some countries that were already subject to them, such as China, but also introduced new universal tariffs in a number of countries that were previously exempt.
“Medium-sized companies, also known as middle market, may be among those most affected by these changes in trade policy,” warn the report’s authors, noting that medium-sized American companies employ around 48 million workers and generate a third of the private sector’s gross domestic product (GDP).
However, although they are large enough to be local or regional pillars, they are not so large that they can easily offset losses in one area with gains in another.
“In responding to changes in trade policy, they may be more agile than larger companies, but they do not have the negotiating power of the latter,” they add.
The JPMorgan Chase Institute report joins a number of different recent analyzes that suggest American businesses and consumers have borne most of the tariff-related burden.
Last week, a study published by the New York Federal Reserve (Fed) on its blog, whose conclusions do not necessarily reflect the entity’s opinion, stated that American consumers and companies were the ones who ended up bearing “almost 90%” of the economic burden of customs duties.
The conclusions published by the New York Fed are in line with those of a recent study by Germany’s Kiel Institute, which last January estimated that American importers and consumers bear 96% of the tariff cost, while foreign exporters absorb only around 4%, which is why it classified the tariffs imposed by Washington as “an own goal”.
On the other hand, a report by the National Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER), led by Gita Gopinath, former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), points out that tariff transmission is widespread and, although the 2025 tariff shock is not yet as large as political announcements suggest, “its costs fall largely on the United States”, as exporters, on average, have not lowered their prices.
Leave a Reply