“I don’t know how not to get the flu.”
Alfred W. Crosby
University professor
and North American historian,
with extensive work on the history of diseases (1931-2018)
Last January 28th marks an unforgettable day in our collective memory. That fateful day marked the entry into national territory of a major meteorological phenomenon: depression. Kristin. The end result was a personal tragedy and a national calamity. It is still too early to determine the scope of the repercussions of this event, but initial calculations, in addition to the lives lost, point to millions in damages and losses.
Much has already been written about the Kristin and much more remains to be written. From what has already been published, the insufficient monitoring and devaluation of these phenomena, the embarrassing lack of preparation, the limitations of most support systems and the lack of an articulated response in a timely manner have been noted. If there was a lack of anticipation, preparation and capacity, what was left was chaos, destruction and worrying dependency, all accompanied by a unique demonstration of solidarity from the population.
In responding to a calamity of this scale, the Health sector is indispensable. Health was always present, with an adequate response and without records of inefficiencies or delays. The fact that the flu epidemic began earlier and ended before the arrival of the depression contributed decisively to this response, at the end of January and in the middle of winter. There was no longer significant flu activity at the end of January, which allowed for the desirable response. This time, a happy coincidence, totally independent and uncontrollable, but with multiple lessons to retain.
If anyone can catch the flu, we must do everything we can to mitigate this risk and its consequences. After the 2009 Flu A (H1N1) pandemic, the influenza surveillance network in Intensive Care Units (ICU) was created in Portugal. This network includes a variable sample of between 12 and 20 ICUs, from a total of around 112 National Health Service hospitals.
In the last report, 156 adult hospitalizations were recorded, with a peak between 12/29/2025 and 01/04/2026, which corresponded to the impressive value of almost 20% of total ICU admissions, of which around half of the patients were under 65 years old. At least 93% had a formal indication for vaccination and, of these, incomprehensibly, the vast majority (76%) were not vaccinated. The lesson is crystal clear: if we want to improve preparedness, there is only the path of prevention.
In relation to Kristin and for future storms, which we will inevitably face again, we also have to “vaccinate”. In this case, learn from mistakes made, gain experience and knowledge, improve preparation and not repeat what failed.
Doctorate in Public Health
and member of the National Public Health Council
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