On Tuesday, we rose with 18,100 points on the Ibex; ayer 17,700. It’s been a week since I wrote so much here, I bought 16,000,- Capricorn is not at risk of altitude sickness.
What about 17,000/18,000?
The bag moves by two factors: expectations and cash flow. If your expectations are good and you will have liquidity available. It will be important whether one or two of these factors manifest in plaque.
Expectations in the bag are based on the future performance of established companieshope or not, share and gain value.
In Spain, a decline in PIB (2.8% or more) and CPI (3%?) in 2025 predicts similar results for 2026. This will benefit businesses. I will sell you more at a higher price. Does macroeconomics seem rationally distinct from microeconomics and consumption?
With the increase in the immigrant population, the domestic gastronomy will be kept stable with the increasing PIB
In microeconomics, with the weight of the banking sector on Ibex, half a week, the operations and results of Santander, BBVA, Sabadell, … caused the index to fall. Will it be permanent? It will depend on your development and types of interests.
With the increase in the immigrant population, family gastronomy will be kept stable as the PIB increases. However, individual purchasing power suffers very little, if at all, due to inflation and impunity and loss of wage earning. Has the evil in the workforce (270,000 fewer branches) been pointed out?
The export ended last November. But between the two months and October last year, the highest figures were reached (255,921 million euros); with Below are the winds outside non-tourist services.
By 2026, expectations for the European economy will improve. As our best customer, our sales in these countries are likely to increase.
As a result, however, there are reasons to hope for good business expectations for 2026 Some sectors, such as banking, are uncertain.
The Spanish bag will be held at the 17,000/18,000 levels, at least during the first half of this year
On the other hand, it seems that the presidency of the US central bank is going to the side of Trump’s friends (Kevin Warsh).
Are the types of interests of the Federal Reserve System supposed to be influenced by the President of the EEUU? If so, the ECB cannot suffer. At this point, he kept 2% for the fifth time, lost interest in fixed income and preferred variable.
Wash appears to be a participant in the “reach” of the Federal Reserve. Sell and discount private and public bonds “quantitative easing”; amount of money. So even if you reduce available liquidity, it will reduce the value of fixed rent as supply increases, making variable rent more affordable.
In any case, this reduction will be slow to avoid system collapse. Wash has a reputation for foresight.
Good business expectations and disposal of products: maintenance or subida de cotizaciones. However, there will always be differences in individual values.
Therefore, the stock is likely to remain high for several months, with the natural oscillations of this market. Hasta after summer?
Are we able to consider that those who disturb the bag?: “Cisnes negros”.
The oranges that caused the anxiety moved to instant actions.
Could war destabilize the economy? Apparently not.
Ukraine and Gaza (under ceasefire) were spent. The operations of Venezuela and the silence of Russia and China indicate that these powers accept Trump’s geopolitics. Iran’s Ayatollahs know how the US military likes it. They are good at it but tie it up in front of their Indian carriers.
are you in spain
A black man could bring about political change. At the moment, we seem to be approaching 2027. For now, the questions announce a centrist and/or multi-party government; favorable to society. More than a black cisne would be a white paloma.
Despite all this, I predict that the Spanish stock market will remain at these 17,000/18,000 levels, at least during the first half of this year.
Experts suggest that various Ibex 35 readings have immediate potential; much more than 20%. Segúne ellos, there is still time to go back in the Spanish bag; anyway, at these heights you select values to buy.
In any case, this is just my opinion (and I usually don’t change it in the bag). No responsibility accepted.
** JR Pin Arboledas is an IESE professor.
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