Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was feared could impact the Earth, now threatens the Moon

An asteroid that for several years was feared to impact Earth is now almost a 4% chance of hitting the Moon, according to data from the James Webb Space Telescope in 2025.

Will asteroid 2024 YR4 impact the Moon? This is what NASA says

It is estimated that the asteroid, about 60 meters and capable of destroying a city, set a new record in February for having the highest probability scientists had ever measured — 3.1% — of impacting Earth.

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A series of subsequent observations they ended up discarding that the asteroid —named 2024 YR4— impact the Earth on December 22, 2032.

However, the chances of it crashing into the Earth’s satellite have been steadily increasing.

After the Webb telescope turned its powerful gaze toward the asteroid last month, the probability of an impact on the Moon is now 3.8%, the agency said. NASA.

“There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will not impact the Moon,” NASA said in a statement this Thursday.

Richard Moissl, director of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, explained that this was in line with its internal estimates of around 4%.

Webb’s data They also shed light on the size of the space rock, which had previously been estimated between 40 and 90 meters.

It is now believed to measure between 53 and 67 meters, approximately the height of a 15-story building. This is significant because it exceeds the 50 meter threshold needed to activate planetary defense aircraft.

Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Cosmic Missile Headed for the Moon?

An asteroid roughly the size of a city block is on a trajectory that could bring it crashing into the Moon—and scientists are watching closely.

2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, made a close approach to Earth at just… pic.twitter.com/vsPUt7FHUf

— newlunarera (@spacemike3) February 2, 2026

If the asteroid still had more than a 1% chance of hitting Earth, “preparations for one or more missions to deflect it would already be starting right now,” Moissl said.

There are a variety of ideas about how Earth could defend itself from asteroids on a collision course, including nuclear weapons and lasers. But only one has been tested on a real asteroid.

In 2022, NASA’s DART mission managed to alter the trajectory of a harmless asteroid after crashing a space probe into it.

Many scientists expect that 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon.

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