What Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli said and confirmed this weekend is a seismic crack in the courage of the Chinese regime, placing the country in unprecedented institutional fragility. According to unconfirmed reports in dissident circles and speculative analysis, it may have been that January 18 at the Jingxi Hotel was a horrific coup attempt that was aborted.
Regardless of the truth of these sounds, it is impossible to confirm the opaque system, the simple fact of ganharem tração reveals the perception of how deeply the military-guerrilla peace exists. If the scenario is real, nuclear deterrence and regime stability will be exposed as vulnerable; if only a purge is inflated, you will be tinged with a heavy dose of paranoia, so the only way to remove an ally was always to commit a crime on top of everything else, to destroy the cohesion of the military command.
Imports from the Central Military Commission (CMC) must be specified to understand the magnitude of the event. No Chinese system, the state is secondary and the party is superior, but the party is governed by the control of weapons carried by the CMC. This is where ideology is transformed into operational capacity and where political authority is transformed into coercive power.
As Xi removes operational chiefs and orders the arrest of military personnel, he is not alone in his fight against corruption; It is about reconfiguring your energy architecture, replacing institutional continuity with absolute personal control. By sacrificing Zhang Youxia, he removes the last psychological barrier from the elite: the message is that no decade of loyalty guarantees survival. With this gesture, the leader isolates himself from the mouse and reaffirms that he has no parceria, just obey. This is what I am sending.
The cause of this conflict may remain a political taboo: the hypothesis of Xi Jinping’s hereditary succession plan. Military resistance to possible dynastic drift, personified in Zhang Youxia, will be accelerated or confronted. Some independent analysts point out that the drastic curtailment of commercial air traffic in the Ningxia area is alarming, so the presumptive successor will remain, now protected by a security cable.
This crisis plunges or the country into total strategic paralysis, seen in the reception in the markets. Focusing on the actions of defense giants such as AVIC and Norinco, they seem to reflect less the medium of war and more the uncertainty over which they are under the control of a command cadet, at a time when communications equipment is seized and frozen.
This crisis erupted at the worst international moment. As Venezuela is reconfigured and the regional scale approaches that of Iran, the 19th century fault line approaches. China is under pressure from the outside, responding bluntly with tough diplomatic notes that condemn foreign interference in national security issues, seeking to connect internal instability with external governments. A leader who does not believe in the generation of us looking at its nuclear arsenal is an irresponsible leader. And the story behind this is that current leaders tend to come up with fatal mistakes that can ignite the Taiwanese party, but also the global order. The twilight of the generations suggests that the middle of the pregnancy is the ability to chin up in the phase of turbulence in which every disparate policy for 11 marks the army that specifies its chin up.
This type of convulsion, common in authoritarian regimes, sends a signal of anxiety to the apologists of these systems and imposes reservations on specialists who, according to determinism, believe that the shift from China to global leadership is a guaranteed destiny and immune to the people of absolute power. No movie, let the more disciplined empires discover that twilight always comes in murals.
Strategy, Security and Defense Analyst
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