WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — In a field where the home team has already fallen out of No. 1 twice this season, it seemed like an appropriate place for the topic of the day: What does history say about the importance of leading the college basketball polls?
Hint: Not as much as you might think.
Arizona is ranked No. 1 this week by the Associated Press. Purdue was there before last week’s flu-killer at Iowa State. Houston was on top in mid-November, and Purdue was before that on opening day. So there are already three changes this season and 14 trading days until Christmas. There were three roster changes last season, none of which were named after Florida, and they failed to win a national title.
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This is the No. 1 business. The historical power of the penthouse will be marginal at best in March, especially when the current occupant is in a frenzy every time he loses (think court attack). Only two of the past 23 champions have been top teams in the NCAA Tournament — Connecticut in 2024 and Kentucky in 2012. Only 18 of the past 48 champions were ranked No. 1 at any point during the championship season. UConn owns 4 of the past 14 championships, and three of those Huskies were not ranked No. 1 in the same week during the season.
Arizona should understand all of this. Oh, the current #1 is getting big enough. “Obviously, it’s nothing you should be ashamed of,” coach Tommy Lloyd told the AP this week. “You’re in Arizona. Big stage. That’s part of being in a program like this. But we have bigger things in mind.” Indeed, the Wildcats at their best were ranked No. 15 when the 1997 NCAA tournament began, and they ended up cutting the net. Arizona has never finished higher than six all season, but remains the last school from the West to win a championship in nearly 29 years.
Purdue has been ranked No. 1 seven times in the last five seasons, making Matt Painter an expert on getting to the top and getting out and what it means. Let me speak to him.
“I didn’t walk away from the Iowa State game and say, ‘OK, we’re not No. 1 now.’ I walked away from the Iowa State game and we kicked ass, how can I let that happen?” he said of the Cyclones’ 81-58 rout. “That’s the downside of being a coach. You can go 34-5 and sit back and think about those five losses. It makes you miserable. Why did you choose this profession?
“Those losses, they sit on you (but) it’s actually a really good thing. Part of you has to be a little bit miserable because that’s your role.”
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That certainly didn’t happen again on Wednesday night. The Boilermakers went on a 29-2 run over Minnesota in the first 10 minutes of the second half to take an 85-57 lead. This week’s discounted No. 6 is just right for Purdue.
“It’s not that important to be in first place,” Painter said. “There’s nothing wrong with being ranked No. 1 in a tournament, but having a 1 next to your name in March. Who cares if you have a 1 next to your name in October, November, December? It’s not a big deal.”
Other essentials, whether or not included in Tier 1:
- Being ranked No. 1 for a season and winning a national championship has been a rare historical artifact since at least the Wood days. John Wooden did it four times at UCLA, but the last time was at Duke 34 years ago. Others have become popular recently. Gonzaga reached the title game in 2021 and Kentucky reached the Final Four in 2015. Defeat and disappointment awaited later.
- Six is the most common late change in the top half of any given season. This happened in 2024, ’23 and ’22. The most volatile season in recent memory was 2019-20, when the No. 1 seed was passed around the table like a dinner basket. Michigan State started there for a week, then Kentucky for a week, then Duke for two weeks, then Louisville for two weeks, then Kansas for a week, then Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas again. With the NCAA Tournament suspended due to the pandemic, we’ll never know what this all turns out to be.
- It turns out that the 1980s were a sweet time for the champions, who never got close to No. 1. Kansas began the 1987-88 preseason at No. 7, quickly climbed down the polls, and lost the rankings over the final eight weeks. Villanova was ranked just six of 17 weeks in 1984-85, finishing no higher than 14 and stunning Georgetown in its famous title game. NC State, a survival-and-advance story in 1983, never finished higher than the 15th in the AP poll and was ranked 16th.
- If No. 1 isn’t tied to championship hopes, what is? Getting into the top 12. When? Now. This week marks the sixth AP poll of the season in which everyone has been successful, and teams ranked in the top 12 entering week six have won 21 consecutive national championships and 35 of the last 36. The only exception was Syracuse in 2003, which was unranked until mid-January. By the way, Florida was ranked No. 9 in Week 6 last season.
- Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Iowa State, Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga, Michigan State, BU, Louisville, Alabama, remember these dozen in three months. Six of them have never won a national title – Iowa State, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga, BU and Alabama. Michigan State, Arizona and Michigan State have not won a championship in 26 years. But they’ve all had a recent advantage on their side.
Sorry #13 Illinois. History says you’re on the wrong side of the bubble. You also have North Carolina, Kansas, and champion Florida. “We are number 1!” It probably won’t matter in March. It’s: We’re at 12!
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