“He’s obviously playing at an incredibly high level. When we played in an exhibition game.” [pre-Australian Open, which Alcaraz won 6-3, 6-4]he played pretty good tennis. I know what to expect.”
What the numbers say
A deeper look at the Alcaraz-de Minaur clashes shows that the Australian’s excellent return has dented the Spaniard’s numbers compared to the level he produced last year when he rose to No.1.
Alcaraz’s ace rate, first serve percentage, first and second serve points won, hold percentage and service points won against de Minaur are lower than any player over the last 52 weeks.
The problem, however, is that de Minaur’s numbers suffer more.
His serve hold percentage of 85.2 percent last year dropped to just 70.5 percent in five games against Alcaraz, while his break percentage — how often he breaks his opponent’s serve — dropped from 28.7 percent to 14.8.
Two-time US Open champion Pat Rafter, who described facing Alcaraz as a “nightmare”, said de Minaur needed to get to the net where possible and use plenty of variety, including his slice, to try and push Alcaraz forward.
“But if [Alcaraz] if he gets there early, he’s going to hurt him,” Rafter said. “I think Alex needs to play with a few things soon and see if it works and see if there’s a chink in his armor.
Alex de Minaur’s serve is coming under intense scrutiny.Credit: Getty Images
Will the demon’s service last?
No part of de Minaur’s game is more criticized than his serve.
The Australian has sacrificed his first serve percentage during his rise to the top 10 in search of more cheap points, but Sinner and Alcaraz have put him under pressure in their matches so far.
That said, he has never served better than at Melbourne Park in the last week.
De Minaur ranked equal 98th in first serve return percentage at Wimbledon last year despite reaching the fourth round.
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The Australian Open is played on hard courts compared to London grass, but it ranks 37th in this metric so far with 42 percent (average is 39). De Minaur has had more unreturned serves in his last two wins than Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik.
His first-serve percentage of 62 is one point below the tournament average, but is higher than the 56 percent he hit last year.
Remarkably, de Minaur wins 79 percent of his first-serve points, which is tied for 11th next to renowned servers Taylor Fritz and Hubert Hurkacz. That’s a lot of progress and would increase his chances against Alcaraz if he can keep it up.
Alcaraz, who hasn’t lost a set in this year’s tournament, is riding at 74 percent.
Where else is Demon doing well?
De Minaur has long been considered one of the best returners in the world and previously ranked first in the ATP Tour’s return metrics.
De Minaur crunches a forehand return serve.Credit: AP
Based on tournament data, he is returning as well as ever, second only to Novak Djokovic in points won (46 percent) and second only to Sinner in matches won (42 percent).
But none of this should surprise anyone. What perhaps raises eyebrows is what de Minaur does from the baseline, where his ability to play closer than others and rush his opponents has become an art form.
De Minaur is tied for first with Djokovic in terms of points won at the Open (60 per cent), but the big change for him is his success on money points in the modern game.
To be a top player, you have to win your share of rallies lasting between zero and four shots, which wasn’t always Minaur’s strength. Djokovic is number one in the tournament, while de Minaur is tied for third with Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton.
Australian great Sam Stosur is among those who have noticed that de Minaur is hitting the bigger ball.
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The eye test and stats suggest de Minaur has never played better, but it will be execution against Alcaraz, a generational talent on his way to becoming one of the greatest ever.
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