Last Thursday, the validity of the New STARTlast bilateral agreement – between Russia, with 5459 nuclear warheads, and the USA, with 5177 – in which the two nuclear superpowers [controlando c. 90% das armas nucleares] committed to “reducing and limiting their strategic offensive weapons” to 1550 warheads each. The US and Russia have not even opened negotiations for its continuation and China has already made it known that it does not agree with Trump’s proposal to triangulate the agreement. In this way, Russia and the USA no longer have legal limits on their nuclear arsenals.
The repeated threats from the Russian leadership to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine and the stance of the American leadership – with a “New Security Strategy” centered on regionally focused imperialism – do not allow any of its allies to feel safe. The resulting uncertainty is leading to an arms race, both in conventional and nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, the repeated violation of International Law by the USA and Russia legitimizes other powers to denounce or breach international treaties that aim to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. In areas with conflicts between regional powers, nuclear proliferation had already begun. This is the case in South Asia, with India (with 172 nuclear warheads) and Pakistan (170) or in the Middle East, with Israel (90) and Iran.
In the Far East, lack of trust in the American superpower is leading to the rearmament of the Japan. A South Korea It must also want to ensure its strategic autonomy in the face of the US retreat. In both cases, rearmament should not be limited to conventional weapons, given the threats to its external security from Russia, China and North Korea (50).
Europe also cannot realistically count on US intervention in the event of Russian aggression. After decades of illusions about “common interests” with the USA, Europe has finally decided to assume its Defense autonomously. The new European conventional rearmament policy will take time to implement and will be delayed by Russian Trojan horses in several European countries.
History shows that the only way to guarantee European security and prevent aggression by an increasingly militarized imperialist Russia is nuclear deterrence. Poland has already declared loud and clear that it will have nuclear weapons. Some Nordic and Baltic countries have already declared their acceptance of the deployment of nuclear weapons. Germany should not be far from following Poland.
If it is not possible to trust erratic, transactional American governments led by corrupt people, and medium powers already have nuclear weapons, why should more European countries do without having them when they are essential for European Defense?
financial consultant and business developer
www.linkedin.com/in/jorgecostaoliveira
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