Experts release new CFP Championship predictions after latest injury updates for Miami vs. Indiana

Indiana enters the College Football Playoff National Championship as the top seed and a solid favorite after an impressive 15-0 season capped off by a dominant 56-22 Peach Bowl victory over Oregon. The Hoosiers will take that momentum to Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, Jan. 19 to face Miami for the title. Indiana’s offense has been consistent, led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, and the defense has been strong all season. The first odds opened with Indiana as a touchdown favorite, with a spread that has widened since then, reflecting both their unbeaten streak and balanced play on both sides of the ball.

The injury outlook for both teams is encouraging. Coach Curt Cignetti confirmed that Indiana emerged from the Peach Bowl with no new injuries and expects its key contributors to play in the championship game. Miami’s Mario Cristobal hinted most of his roster will be available despite some late hits in the Fiesta Bowl, with defensive standouts like Akheem Mesidor and Ahmad Moten “full throttle” and a few players like Elija Lofton trending but still questionable. One notable availability issue for Miami is that starting cornerback Xavier Lucas will miss the first half due to a targeting suspension.

With reports that both teams expect to be near full strength and set up what could be a hotly contested title game, pundits have released new predictions for this compelling CFP Championship game.

CFP Championship Betting Preview: Miami vs. Indiana

Use the interactive widget below to view the latest spread, over/under and moneyline odds and odds for the Hurricanes-Hoosiers game at Hard Rock Stadium in the CFP Championship.

This prediction and best bet for Monday’s CFP Championship game between Miami and Indiana comes from Dimers.comreliable source for sports betting predictions.

Game details

• data: Monday, January 19, 2026
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venues: Hard rock stadium

Expert Prediction: Miami vs. Indiana

Dimers’ 10,000-game simulation model points to Indiana as the most likely winnergiving the Hoosiers a 67 percent chance of winning compared to Miami’s 33 percent. The predicted game scenario suggests that Indiana dominates the second half but doesn’t quite cover, resulting in a projected final score Indiana 27, Miami 21. That six-point margin coincides with a competitive title game where Miami’s offense does enough to stay within range even if Indiana eventually closes it out.

Best bet: Miami +8.5

The strongest value on the board sits Miami +8.5. Despite Indiana being favored, Dimers’ spread probabilities show Miami covering a higher rate, with the Hurricanes projected to stay within that number in most simulations. With a projected final margin of just six points, Miami’s plus points provide a solid cushion in what’s shaping up to be a tighter game than the margin suggests.

Conclusion: CFP National Championship

Indiana’s balance and efficiency make them a deserved favorite in the College Football Playoff National Championship, but the data points to a tighter game than the spread suggests. Miami’s ability to pressure the quarterback and generate chunk plays keeps them alive against the count, so Miami +8.5 strong betting angle. From a player support perspective, the Hurricanes game plan is also holding up Malachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (+160 on DraftKings) firmly in the game, giving bettors a plus-money scoring option in a game where Miami should play with urgency throughout.

Please note that all CFB predictions and CFB best bets in this preview are based on 10,000 simulations of Miami vs. Indiana based on data and are correct at the time of publication to help you make better decisions when betting on online sportsbooks.

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