The death of Ayatollah Ali Khameneikilled in a coordinated attack by USA e Israelopened a vacuum at the top of the power of Iranbut it did not immediately alter the institutional structure of the Islamic Republic. In the midst of bombings and regional tensions, the political system activated mechanisms planned to guarantee continuity.
Specialists point out that the country reaches this stage with an architecture designed to face contingencies in the head of state. The internationalist Agustín H. Berea maintains that “there was already a succession plan” and that the state apparatus “certainly must already have a succession plan, if not active, in the process of being activated.”
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The definition of the next leader corresponds to the Assembly of Expertsmade up mostly of conservative clerics. According to Berea, in recent years the Iranian leadership “dedicated itself to removing all moderates from the most important positions of power,” which resulted in a body with a homogeneous ideological profile. “All those remaining on the Council of Experts are conservative, hard-liners,” he summarizes.
Iran military reconfiguration anticipated
In the military sphere, the reorganization after the 2025 attacks drove operational adjustments in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. According to the analyst, “less hierarchical, less vertical, and more regional” schemes were adopted, aimed at maintaining the capacity for action even in the face of the loss of central commands.
Under this model, he explains, the units have room to operate in a decentralized manner. “All those armed people are ready to operate as guerrillas,” he points out, which increases the costs of any external attempt at destabilization. Although internal dynamics could arise between regional commands, strategic leadership remains concentrated in the leadership linked to the Assembly of Experts.
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For Berea, the situation does not anticipate an immediate political turn or an opening towards the West. The succession process, he points out, will predictably be quick and dominated by hardline profiles. In this context, the Iranian system prioritizes internal stability and institutional continuity in the face of external pressure, in a regional environment marked by confrontation and uncertainty.
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