Essentially, there are five lessons that we cannot ignore after what we experienced here, near Mondego (and in other parts of the country, such as the battered region of Leiria), under winds and floods that ripped off roofs, ruined houses and factories, cut roads and, tragically, took lives. Crises like this are not just extreme weather episodes; they are tests of the capacity of public authorities – at local, regional (if it existed, as it should), national and European levels – to anticipate, respond and learn.
The first lesson is simple, but stubbornly forgotten: public management must be designed to deal with the unexpected. Strategies, action plans and resources – human and financial – must foresee alternative scenarios and accommodate unanticipated costs. This implies resisting the temptation to empty the “financial cushions” for immediate electoral gains, as we saw happening recently in Portugal. Governing is preparing, not just reacting.
The second lesson, linked to the previous one, is structural: institutions such as APA or LNEC can only respond effectively in times of crisis, if they have previously been provided with means, knowledge and technical capacity. One cannot improvise, nor invent competence the day a flood or drought, fire or epidemic comes. Investing beforehand is the only way to guarantee a response later.
The third lesson is the need for real coordination between levels of government. In crisis situations, there is no room for rigid administrative borders, nor for limited competencies that delay decisions. Responses must be integrated and without silos. What matters is mobilizing those who have the best means to act – be it the municipality, the government of the Republic or European institutions – and handing over leadership to those who are best prepared to take command. Crises like this require a combination of command and control with networking, not watertight organizational charts.
The fourth lesson is the decisive importance of data. Good data saves lives and prevents further harm. The pandemic had already exposed this fragility: we did not have integrated, reliable and comparable health data, neither at national nor European level. It was necessary to chase them and harmonize criteria.
In the case of Mondego, the difference was felt. It was the data from APA and EDP – and the models built on them – that made it possible to control, with enormous rigor, the flow of the river and avoid much greater damage. The president of APA explained clearly: the level of the Aguieira dam was preventively lowered, increasing the holding capacity, and then this limit was regulated with millimetric precision. Science and data are not accessories; are a civil protection infrastructure.
The fifth lesson is that no national or European strategy works without local knowledge. Crises always reveal the importance of local authorities, communities and institutions that know the land – literally – better than any central office. They are the ones who know where the water passes, where the wind blows, where the most vulnerable population is and who need to leave their homes before others. And they are the ones who arrive first, often before any formal coordination.
This requires strengthening the technical and operational capacity of municipalities and recognizing that the participation of communities – firefighters, associations, farmers, organized neighbors – is not a complement, but an essential part of territorial resilience. Without this proximity, the response is always slower, more expensive and less effective.
Crises like this are not just tragedies, they are diagnoses. They show what works, what fails and what needs to be rebuilt. To ignore these and other lessons would be to waste the opportunity – and repeat the mistake – when the next storm arrives. Unfortunately, it may not take long.
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