DBRS revised its estimates for the price of oil this year upwards, given the conflict in the Middle East that is affecting production, to $68 per barrel for Brent and $65 for WTI oil.
“To reflect the global shortage of crude oil caused by lower production in the Persian Gulf, we raised the forecast for the price of Brent oil in 2026 from 63 dollars/barrel to 68 dollars/barrel and the forecast for the price of WTI oil in 2026 from 60 dollars/barrel to 65 dollars/barrel”, reads the note released this Tuesday, 17th, by DBRS.
DBRS pointed out that “given the wide range of potential repercussions of the conflict, it remains uncertain whether the price increase will continue in the medium term and whether there will be a structural impact on Persian Gulf oil and gas supplies.”
Even so, some adjustments to price forecasts have already been made, with the agency signaling that it will continue to monitor the situation if further changes are necessary.
The financial rating agency noted that “onshore pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait is limited, crude oil stocks in the Gulf are running low and producers in the region have been forced to reduce or halt production.”
Crude oil prices soared, he noted, and the International Energy Agency’s subsequent release of emergency oil reserves “did little to calm prices.”
Tensions in the Middle East, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil production and almost 20% of liquefied natural gas passes, have brought greater volatility in energy prices.
The blockage of the Strait also halted exports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar, but DBRS did not change the forecast for the price of natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).
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