Iran’s green fortress is collapsing on the edge of Hormuz and its ability to strike the northern emirates of Saudi Arabia. In these variables, the war is a local Iran-Israel conflict that will end end of two bands.
What ails the world economic shift of the union between the EU and Israel. Especially the effect on fuel prices.
The least anxious person is on the American continent. Lejos del conflicto teneren sufficient own production regardless of Asian oil. Even more so because Trump sat down in Venezuela in his favor.
The population of deprived countries, including China, depends on the production of oil and gas in the Arabian Peninsula, which is the natural pace of the extreme of Hormuz. 20% of global traffic passes through them.
If Iran were to stop shipping in this geography for a long period of time, it would be bad for everyone. El que menos EEUU.
The solution is to stop the war or open the edge of Ormuz
The solution is to stop the war or open the edge of Ormuz.
How to stop the war? With total defeat from Iran or retreat from EEUU.
Total Iranian revolution and regime change are complicated. Occupying an area of 1,648 kilometers2 (3.3 times that of Spain) and 93 million inhabitants (twice that of Spain) is not easy.
De hecho, e.g the biggest unknown in this war. Your religious based regime change is complete.
There is no doubt about the superiority of the EEUU in armaments, quality and quantity. It is therefore not surprising that the term “derechización” is actually a defensive reaction against the politics of the incompetent. after 7 years, starting with 8 years of government, no one can take it the fault is in the previous governments.
In the new international order, the call for an international right is naive
Are 65-year-old mayors very happy? In some cases, the mitad votes in the current government. The day makes you conservative. But conservatism does not mean that quierda or derecha means maintaining the status quo.
doubts about the ability and intention of your units to occupy the terrain. The Pentagon, fully aware of this, does not seem intent on landing babies on Iranian soil.
The second alternative, an EEUU defect, is unlikely and will take a long time.
However, if the Ayatollas occupy the northern coast of the Hormuz side, they can seize the economies of the developed world.
Last Sunday it looked like the Ayatolas would stop attacking the emirates and allow the ships to pass. Now that the hard-wing Mojtaba Jameini has been elected, that doesn’t seem possible.
Any vessel traveling to the end of Ormuz is accessible from the northern coast. All you need is a soldier and Lanzacohetes. Therefore, it is urgent to avoid it.
The solution is to freeze the area. where do you do it
French President Emmanuel Macron was able to propose a “defensive” international coalition to ensure the circulation of the same.
It would seem that the EEUU/Israel-Iran conflict will freeze in the extreme zone.
There are international legal bases for this legal freezing of the border of Hormuz. According to the United Nations Convention on the Side of the Sea (COVEMAR), the side of the commercial street for ribereños states cannot be suspended.
Iran has signed but not ratified COVEMAR. He interprets it in his own way. Do not stop enemy boats, North American and Israeli war boats. Remember that you are not protecting them international maritime derecho.
How often are French or other Western nationalities attracted to listening to commercial traffic on peacekeeping missions?
Could this be considered a declaration of war?
Opponents of war the same that requires respecting the international legality of parts of the EEUU, you have to do it with the Ayatolás.
They didn’t do it with the human rights abuses of Iranians by parts of their government. Do they have it under the “commercial” rights of ships of non-conflicting countries?
Are you far from conflict? Did they say they will not participate in attacks and operations on the territory based in the EEUU?
Ask them to draw a conclusion: an international public sphere is now more of an aspiration than a reality, stupidity that applies according to practical interests in the game. Úrsula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, made this clear this week, contradicting Spanish President Sánchez.
Follow your words: In the new international order, the call for an international right is naive. In the case of Sánchez, an electoral trick.
** JR Pin Arboledas is an IESE professor.
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