When you are at the point of completing two weeks from the start of the operation Epic furyThe situation in Iran has gone from a supposedly surgical incursion to a full-scale open conflict.
The United States and Israel recorded more than 6,000 targets, drastically undermining Tehran’s defense capacity.
Without the embargo, the regime did not collapse. On the contrary, the US-Israeli hostigamiento has fared well beyond expectations and appears to have coalesced under the leadership of the new Supreme Ayatollah, who has summed up the aerial reprisals of the Gulf countries and Tel Aviv in the skies east of Hormuz.
From the beginning, the operation took place in a strategic nebula with a generally known absence of clear objectives. It was undertaken as a mission to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat it turned into a summer campaña without a daily route for the “day after”.
In addition, we find constant contradictions about Donald Trumpwhich oscillated between classifying the war as a “small excursion” and promising a battle “to the end” and demanding “total redemption”.
But in the last few hours, the tone of Casa Blanca has changed significantly.
During rallies in Kentucky, Trump has practically ended the offensive: “You don’t like to say how ready you are. But we’re happy.”
By declaring that the war is “very complete,” the president is trying to capture in the public mind an image of a round and pleasant outcome.
The ad suggests this Trump’s entourage is preparing the ground for a tactical retreat. Or at least for the big bombing.
The goal is clear: to sing victory and limit the fall of the Republican Party in the elections. With the November elections approaching, the White House knows it cannot afford to go to the polls with an ongoing war and conflict that is unpopular with 73% of citizens.
And therefore, in this context, we cannot support the motivations of domestic politics. At the end of the day, the voter’s wallet is the real battleground.
Trump needs to project the image of a strong commander. But at the same time, don’t ignore it prolonging the conflict with the loss of the price of gasoline at electorally unsustainable levels, they also want to connect with part of their social solidarity base with the president’s desire to lead to recurring hatred.
For Republicans, perpetual war is therefore the most direct path to defeat in Congress middle semesters.
In this scenario, Trump faces what is known as the “Devil’s Dilemma,” where he is faced with having to choose between two options with potentially disastrous results.
On the one hand, the devil of total victory, which means deviating from the regime of the Ayatollahs and risking conversion to Iran in a failed state of 85 million people.
Portro, the devil maintenancewhich is now to be held and left alive to a wounded and radicalized enemy who will pursue nuclear power in the future.
Prolonging the crisis has devastating global impacts.
Hormuz blockade keeps oil around $100, addressing the new wave of global inflation and recession in Europe. And the risk of regional contagion is real, with drone attacks on bases in the Persian Gulf and the paralysis of oil shipping choking the local economy.
Despite all this, and although neither option is fully satisfactory, the White House seems to understand that time is against it.
In foreign policy, perfection is as bad as it gets. And at the risk of embarrassment undermining the regional economy and stability, it seems better to accept an incomplete victory than to persist in an endless war with more of those who benefit.
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