As The US and Israeli campaign against Iran expanded and transit through the Strait of Hormuz was almost paralyzedEurope was forced to face a double blow: a military crisis on its periphery and an energy rise that seems to be opening a window to the Kremlin.
The president of the European Council, António Costa, maintained that Russia is, so far, the main beneficiary of the conflictwarning that rising oil and gas prices could help finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine, while Western attention and weapons are diverted to the Middle East.
That warning came when Brent exceeded $100 per barrelreviving fears not seen since the Russian invasion of 2022. Vladimir Putin reacted immediately by suggesting that Moscow was willing to resume long-term energy ties with Europe, even after the European Union drastically reduced its dependence on Russian fuel: more than 40% of its gas imports before the war in Ukraine around 13% in 2025.
At the same time, the Trump administration was reportedly considering extending sanctions relief on Russian oil to cool markets, despite European pressure not to allow Moscow to refill its “war chest.”
The turbulence, furthermore, already exceeds the crude oil. Analysts warn that A prolonged disruption in the Gulf could affect the supply of helium and bromine, two key inputs for semiconductor manufacturingwhile more expensive energy could slow the expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence.
Europe, meanwhile, has struggled to project a unified stance. France, Greece, the United Kingdom and other countries sent forces to Cyprus following drone attacks linked to Iran, and Emmanuel Macron declared that when Cyprus is hit, all of Europe is under attack.
Paris is also preparing a defensive maritime escort mission in the strait for when the intensity of the fighting subsides. But as European governments rush to protect territory, trade and energy flows, the background image remains a fragmented Europe, a Washington distracted on multiple fronts and Russia watching prices rise.
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