War has once again taken hold in the Middle East with an intensity that could already be anticipated a few weeks ago. The bombings involving Israel, the United States and Iran, and which have hit other countries in the region, have placed the Persian Gulf at the center of global strategic instability. And the energetic consequences were immediate.
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a quarter of global maritime oil trade passes, and energy markets have reacted as expected. The price of oil and natural gas has risen consistently, directly affecting countries’ budgets, the functioning of companies and the pockets of those who have electricity and gas bills to pay, or depend on their cars for their daily lives.
For Europe, this crisis has particular significance. The war in Ukraine had already demonstrated that energy dependence can quickly transform into strategic vulnerability.
For decades, the continent has become accustomed to relatively cheap energy from abroad, especially from Russia and the Middle East. This model allowed for growth and stability, but was based on a premise that proved to be fragile: that the geopolitical context would remain stable.
After 2022, Europe quickly reorganized its supply sources and liquefied natural gas, imported mainly from the United States, replaced a significant part of Russian gas.
This solution avoided a deeper economic crisis, but it did not solve the problem of our energy deficit. In fact, he just exchanged one dependency for another.
This new dependence raises another question today. In a more fragmented international system, marked by trade tensions and strategic rivalries and where President Donald Trump considers the European Union a challenge to United States national policy, we cannot assume that access to American energy will always be abundant, cheap and politically neutral. Energy thus once again confronts us with the classic European question: to what extent does the continent control its own destiny?
The current crisis involving Iran reinforces this evidence. Whenever the Middle East enters into open conflict, Europe is exposed to external shocks that it cannot control. Energy is no longer just an economic or environmental variable and has also become a strategic security problem.
It is in this context that European energy policy must be understood. For years, the debate on the energy transition in Europe was presented mainly as a response to climate change.
This dimension continues to be central, as recent storms in Portugal have reminded us. But today there are two other equally important arguments: strategic autonomy and fiscal balance.
The expansion of renewable energy simultaneously reduces emissions, costs and geopolitical dependencies. Each megawatt produced by solar, hydro or wind energy is energy that does not need to be imported from unstable regions. And together with renewable sources, several European countries have once again considered the role of nuclear energy as a stable source of low-carbon electricity, capable of reinforcing the security of the energy system.
In a world where energy continues to determine balances of power, wars and alliances, the lesson of the current crisis is simple. The energy transition is no longer just an environmental choice and a budgetary variable, but becomes a condition of strategic sovereignty for the continent.
For Portugal, which imports all of its non-renewable energy, the option is so obvious that it is surprising that we are still discussing it.
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