Since his allegiance to the presidency of the United States, every one of his military operations has been publicized, to a limited extent.
The first bomber of the Syrian airbase Sheteytat.
Further asesinato de Soleimani.
Go ahead, launch the MOAB on the Taliban.
Next, an attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
Y, finally, capture Nicolás Maduro.
All actions are perfectly designed and calculated.
That’s obvious. We are facing a hellish poker game in which the strength and will of the Iranian leader are the real keys to the war.
Or what is the same thing: Trump hoped for a short war and would be effective in making his enemies double down on him. Arriesgada apuesta. A pin that hangs on a hill called sweetluck, coincidence.
Map of the location of the end of Ormuz and the countries that rode it in the Persian Gulf.
Tithes “suerte” for a number of reasons.
Once the United States achieves air supremacy, will Iran’s ability to launch long-range missiles be eradicated in a month? Probably yes.
Is it a drone launch from a wide valley? It will probably never go away completely.
Are there any ancient missiles roaming the outskirts of Ormuz? This is very difficult because they are easy to hide in civilian trucks and use very low magazines. They don’t soar into the sky like high-altitude missiles, so you have to be alert to spot them.
It was impossible to save against the Yemeni Houthis at the end of Bab el Mandeb de disruption of up to 90% of sea traffic during cases for two years. And there’s no reason why there isn’t a way to eliminate anti-tank missiles and the deployment of airborne teams and naval drones loaded with explosives.
Ultimately, whether the campaign falls short depends on whether those responsible for blocking the line or their own supply chain decide to give up. And yes no, it will be necessary to create a system of oil convoys supported by anti-aircraft vessels that will tend to detect anti-bump missiles and naval mines that Iran is discovering in Hormuz.
Once this is ready, the accounts preparation sets up the worst case scenario: total escalation across part of Iranwhich will use all its instruments of power to internationalize the conflict and pressure the United States.
These items are basically four:
a) terrorism: a very typical tactic of Iran in the 1980s that could be restored.
b) Interruption of the Ormuz line: it can be complete or partial. And historical experience shows that if Iran is willing to play, it will not be possible to stop it from extracting extreme waters or launching anti-buque missiles.
c) Connect infrastructures hydrocarbons in the Persian Gulf.
d) Long range attacks to liquidate American and Western soldiers.
“If the situation continues, the hydrocarbon market will suffer, with a cumulative impact on the global economy, affecting China, Europe and the United States.”
The Ormuz line is interrupted. Now companies are responding by keeping their ships docked in the bay in the hope of payments.
If the situation continues, the hydrocarbon market will suffer upheavals in its strategic position in the global market with a domino effect on the global economy, which will strike first in China, then in Europe, and finally in the United States.
Adamas, has a big beneficiary: Russia. For months now, Kremlin finances have been adding to the enormous pressure of low oil prices. Prior to this scenario, gross usage would be reassessed.
As for attacks on hydrocarbon infrastructure in the Middle East, we can confirm that they have touched you.
Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery had several impacts confirmed by satellite imagery. Just wait and see as the attacks spread and try to hit the hardest parts of patching certain installations. Oh yes, this is where Iran is trying to attack fixable coups.
The most aggressive option would be an attack on desalination plants that supply drinking water to Arab countries.
Respecting the removal of United States troops, Iran has demonstrated its expertisenow.
North American military bases are easily bombed because of the minimal distance that separates them from Iran. Since the embargo, Iran has only meted out the media death penalty until the end in an attack on a logistics facility in Kuwait.
The gas of interceptor missiles that carry gauges (hasta 3 Patriot for each attack missile) indicates that The United States avoids bays along its entire coastlineand you are willing to use a disproportionate number of fighters to avoid the political damage of lows.
However, if Iran really wants to attack and its missile and drone forces successfully adapt, it’s only a matter of time before the ever-small arsenal of interceptors is gone.
“It is likely that neither side will succeed in their strategic objectives, and this leads to the dilemma of a major war or a retreat of the United States.”
Just as this is the story of the United States, the US Air Force is attacking and conducting very aggressive operations in Iranian airspace to attack Iranian airborne teams.
Only a massive uprising, a calm of will or a coup d’état in Tehran could lead to a quick end to the war.
The alternative is a withdrawal from the United States under the pretext of “full mission,” a likely scenario if the conflict expands beyond what the Trump administration wants.
Just a desire to get there quickly and incite a riot in the capital, which Israel and the United States have targeted their attacks in Tehranand mainly about the police apparatus.
In conclusion, it is likely that neither side is succeeding in fulfilling its strategic objectives, and this leads to the dilemma of a major war or a retreat from the United States.
Slightly less likely, but completely out of the question, is that there will be an internal revolution or coup in the capital. The fact that the United States says that the most likely target is that Iran will cause serious damage to the EEUU.
As a black man, it is clear that this war and the unresolved situation of Venezuela have absorbed the recursions of the United States, which at this moment only maintains a group of aircraft carriers defending the Pacific Ocean and the Taiwan allies, a force that is, by all accounts, insufficient to fight China.
Therefore, militarily speaking, we have before twenty a unique opportunity for which leader who decided to attack the island of Formosa.
Japan’s decision to attack the United States amid Washington’s oil embargo and China’s assertion of local dominance at Pearl Harbor creates troubling seeds of conflict with the current situation affecting Taiwan and China’s oil industry.
*** Yago Rodríguez is a military and geopolitical analyst and director of The Political Room.
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