Although the conflict in Middle East shows signs of expansion into new territories and various indications suggest that Iran will bet on a prolonged confrontation, the American president, Donald Trumpexpressed his intention to influence the election of the successor of the Ayatollah Ali Khameneiby drawing a parallel with the political process that occurred in Venezuela after the capture of the autocrat Nicolas Maduro.
In statements to the media Axiosthe US president stated that the eventual appointment should not fall on Mojtab Jameneison of the deceased leader and considered one of the candidates for the position. “Khamenei’s son is a weightless person. I have to participate in the appointment, as with Delcy (Rodríguez),” said the Republican.
The Republican’s statements come in the midst of an intensification of the conflict that already exceeds Iranian territory. In the last few hours, the fall of drones in the territory of Azerbaijanas Iran launched attacks against pro-American Kurdish groups in northern Irak. At the same time, Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon with bombings against movement infrastructure jihadist Hezbollah in the southern suburbs of the capital, Beirut.
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Iran’s logic aims to sustain a prolonged conflict: specialist
Meanwhile, analysts warn that Iran’s strategy may not seek a quick military victory. According to the internationalist Agustín H. Bereaacademic of the Iberoamerican Universitythe logic of Tehran It aims to sustain a prolonged conflict that gradually wears down its adversaries.
“The objective does not seem to be a direct conventional confrontation, but rather to generate the highest possible economic cost for its adversaries,” explained the specialist.
In this scenario, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard could reconfigure its operations towards irregular warfare schemes, with intermittent attacks using drones and short-range missiles against strategic infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
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This type of confrontation implies a marked asymmetry in costs, the analyst points out. While some drones “can be manufactured for thousands of dollars in a matter of days,” intercepting them with advanced systems may require “projectiles that range in price from one to four million dollars and take months to produce.”
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