The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran could represent a turning point in the current geopolitical order. The Donald Trump Administration’s decision to move forward with direct military intervention signals a relevant change in the way Washington returns to assuming the use of military power as a central instrument of foreign policy.
In addition to the immediate military dimension, this movement raises doubts about the stability of the international system and the capacity of multilateral institutions to contain crises of this scale. In a context already marked by rivalries between great powers and growing global fragmentation, a confrontation of this nature risks amplifying tensions and triggering chain effects in other regions, reinforcing the perception of a new phase of international geopolitical and financial reconfiguration that could shape the coming decades.
From an economic point of view, the impact has been reflected almost immediately in global energy and financial markets. Although Iran is not the world’s largest producer, it holds very significant reserves and is part of the group of countries with relevant influence on the global oil supply, particularly in the context of OPEC. In recent days, the military escalation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices: Brent has surpassed 80 dollars per barrel, with increases of around 10% after the first attacks and recent new highs to values close to 84 dollars as the conflict intensified.
A second reflection concerns specifically Europe and its strategic exposure to external shocks. The European Union has sought to assert itself as a more relevant geopolitical actor, but continues to face clear limitations when large-scale military crises emerge in its strategic vicinity. At the same time, the European economy remains particularly sensitive to disruptions in international energy and financial markets. A prolonged escalation in the Middle East could result in energy price increases, market volatility and new inflationary pressures, complicating economic management at a time when many countries are still dealing with the consequences of recent years of instability. This context reinforces the importance of a more robust European strategy on security, energy and foreign policy.
On a final note, and although geographically distant from the epicenter of the conflict, Portugal is deeply integrated into European economic dynamics and, therefore, vulnerable to energy shocks, financial instability or slowing growth. This context reinforces the need for the country to think more strategically about its position in the international system, valuing its geographical advantages and diplomatic networks. Without conflicting with the commitments made in the European Union and NATO – the example of neighboring Spain is not at all the best – Portugal must seek to assert its own external strategy that diversifies economic and diplomatic relations in an increasingly uncertain world.
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