The military escalation in Middle Eaststarted on Saturday with the attacks coordinated of United States and Israel against him Islamic regime of Iranseems to be heading, according to analysts, towards a confrontation that does not necessarily seek a quick victory through decisive offensives, but rather to prolong the conflict to gradually erode the military, economic and political capacity of Washington and his allies.
According to the internationalist Agustín H. Bereaacademic of the Iberoamerican UniversityTehran’s strategic logic points precisely in that direction. “The objective does not seem to be a direct conventional confrontation, but rather to generate the highest possible economic cost for its adversaries.“explained the specialist when evaluating the dynamics of the conflict after the recent American and Israeli bombings against Iranian territory.
Long pressure strategy
According to Berea, various signs suggest that units of The Iranian Revolutionary Guard would be reorganizing to operate under irregular warfare schemes. In that scenario, intermittent attacks with drones or short-range missiles could continue even if large-scale bombings decrease.
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The logic would be to maintain constant pressure on economic infrastructures and strategic routes Persian Gulf through isolated but persistent incidents.
“We could see a sustained low-intensity dynamic: a drone here, a missile there, enough to maintain economic and strategic pressure,” said the specialist.
This type of confrontation responds to a key asymmetry in the costs of modern war. While some drones or missiles relatively simple can cost just thousands of dollars, intercepting them with advanced systems can require projectiles whose price ranges between one and four million dollars.
Furthermore, production also favors the attacker. Short-range drones and missiles can be manufactured in large quantities in a matter of days, while producing sophisticated interceptors can take three to six months.
Lessons from asymmetric warfare
This dynamic explains, in part, the caution of several monarchies of the Persian Gulf regarding direct participation in the conflict. Its air defense systems are advanced, but its defensive ammunition reserves are not unlimited.
The region already experienced a similar experience during the war in Yemen, when Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Gulf Cooperation Council against the Houthi rebels. After years of fighting and high financial costs, the campaign ended without a decisive victory and with tensions between the allies themselves.
Berea maintains that this pattern is repeated in different contemporary conflicts.
“The powers can dominate the conventional battlefield, but if the adversary manages to prolong the conflict and raise the political and economic costs, it ends up generating wear and tear that is difficult to sustain,” he indicated.
The United States faced similar dilemmas in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, where adversaries with lesser military capabilities managed to prolong wars for years.
Risks for the global economy
Meanwhile, hehe effects of the conflict are already beginning to be felt beyond the military field. The director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the war in the Middle East is “testing” the resilience of the world economy.
“If this conflict continues, it could affect energy prices, market confidence, growth and inflation,” he warned during an economic forum in Bangkok.
Volatility has already led to emergency measures in some countries. South Korea activated a stock market stabilization fund of 68 billion dollars due to the fall of its financial marketwhile in the Persian Gulf maritime incidents were reported, including damage to a tanker off Kuwait.
A conflict that could drag on
On the military level, Israel continued bombing targets in Tehran and other Iranian cities, while Iran launched new salvos of missiles against Israeli territory. In Lebanon, airstrikes near Beirut left new victims and increased the number of displaced people.
For Berea, regional history suggests that these confrontations rarely end in clear victory.
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If the conflict evolves into a protracted war of attrition, the analyst warns, the result could be an unstable balance that leaves Iran more isolated but still standing.
“Wars of attrition in the region often come back to square one,” he said. “The problem is that, in that scenario, the incentives to accelerate nuclear programs may become stronger.”
In this context, the expert concludesthe current crisis could reconfigure not only the military balance of the Middle East, but also the rules of strategic deterrence in the international system.
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