Travelers stranded due to the conflict in Iran will number more than a thousand, according to the Portuguese Association of Travel and Tourism Agencies (APAVT), with the National Association of Travel Agencies (ANAV) pointing to around 500.
In response to questions from Lusa, the president of APAVT, Pedro Costa Ferreira, indicated that information is still being collected “which is itself very dynamic”, but he can state that there will be “more than a thousand people with difficulties in returning, either because they are in the conflict zone, or because they have return itineraries that include conditioned airspace”.
In turn, Miguel Quintas, president of ANAV, said that, according to daily contacts with customers, they estimate “that there are a few hundred people in the affected areas (between 400 and 500 people)”, and “many of these Portuguese ‘non-customers’ of travel agencies” have asked for support with booking and flight information.
“The repatriation will be carried out as soon as flights can arrive and leave the areas affected by the war, always within maximum security, and we are aware that some sporadic flights have already been carried out from Abu Dhabi and Dubai”, he indicated.
The president of APAVT said that “travel agencies are, naturally, monitoring all their customers, with the aim of controlling the conditions of their stay, as well as scheduling returns, according to the air space open at any given time”, being in contact with the Secretariat of State for Communities and integrating a Crisis Office in the European Confederation of Travel Agencies.
The president of ANAV warned of the increased travel costs, taking into account the context. “If instability continues over time, it is It is very likely that prices will increase for destinations outside the conflict zone”, due to aviation, with the costs of route deviations and due to the tourist package, because of the “need to carry out new accommodation contracts. The growing demand for new destinations, “the operational costs of contracting and insurance, can also lead to an increase in the respective prices”.
The president of APAVT, in turn, pointed out pressure on prices “mainly due to reduced capacity and the need to reaccommodate passengers in alternatives”which tends “to translate into more volatile commercial conditions and, in some cases, increased prices on the remaining options”.
Pedro Costa Ferreira also pointed out cancellations, indicating from the outset that “There are departures in the coming days, which are hampered by lack of conditions at the destinations and/or difficulties in completing the trip, due to the current airspace conditions”.
Miguel Quintas, in turn, highlighted that “agencies are registering a significant increase in requests in the last 48 hours, mainly postponements and reschedulings (more than actual cancellations)”.
According to the president of ANAV, “the main cause is operational uncertainty”, with airports and routes restricted, as well as “route changes and the risk of missed connections”.
Still according to Miguel Quintas, “the most affected destinations are those in the risk corridor and, above all, the ‘hubs’ that multiply itineraries: Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and also Tel Aviv, Beirut and Riyadh (these via stopovers)”.
The president of ANAV highlighted that a “psychological effect” can be expected in “some orders for the Eastern Mediterranean, with a search for alternatives further west”.
As for the prospects for the coming months, the president of APAVT pointed out that “they depend on the evolution of the conflict and restrictions on airspace and operations”, pointing out for now, a “a scenario of high uncertainty and likely volatility in the coming weekswith a direct impact on routes that depend on the Middle East corridor”.
The president of ANAV, while acknowledging that “the size and length of time the conflict will last is unknown”, warned that if “events are prolonged in time, it is possible that replacement destinies will emerge”.
For Miguel Quintas, the greatest probability involves switching to long-distance flights to “safety neutral” destinations, such as the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, “for audiences who want to reduce exposure to sensitive air corridors and desire luxury”. Another option will be to change “region by region”, that is, “those who were going to the Gulf/Levant will be able to opt for Türkiye, Greece and eventually Cyprus and part of Egypt.
Less likely will be an exchange for “safe sun and beach”, for Spain, Canaries, Portugal, Morocco, Tunisia.
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