On the 5th and 6th of March 2026, Lisbon will host the 2nd Social Security Congress, promoted by Almedina, a meeting that will bring together academics, public decision-makers, magistrates, institutional leaders and experts to debate some of the structuring themes of the Portuguese Social State. The program covers issues as diverse as the Social Security Basic Law, emerging legal challenges, the impact of immigration on the financial sustainability of the system, professional protection models and the growing role of individual savings and pension funds.
The conference comes at a critical time. Demographic pressure, territorial inequalities, economic uncertainty and the accelerated transformation of labor markets place social protection at the center of the public agenda. It is in this context, in which the country is discussing the future of pensions, the balance between generations, the adaptation of the welfare state and the sustainability of its institutions, that it is important to revisit the foundations of social policies and reflect on the risks that are already being felt in the present.
The Structural Dynamics that Shape Social Protection
Portugal is currently at a crossroads in which the debate on social protection is no longer a “domestic” issue. The sustainability of pensions and social support is crossed by a new reality: a global interdependence that links demography, migration, pandemics, technology and productivity and which, through investment and mobility, also reaches the housing market. When migratory flows partially compensate for the loss of active population or when international competition alters costs and installed capacity, we realize that global interdependence is inescapable and no social state retires as if we lived on an island.
On the other hand, we cannot continue to decide social protection policies based on the “foam of days”, that is, depending on short-term political cycles, which inhibit structural reforms. Therefore, the longothermism (iethe integration of the long term into present decisions) is a political obligation. Only in this way can social protection be reformed over a period of decades.
The observed trends (e.gaccelerated aging, low birth rates and an increase in the dependency ratio), reinforce the idea that we are not facing temporary “shocks”, but rather dynamics that are projected for decades.
The demographic trajectory points to increasing pressure on those who work and contribute, while the tax base narrows, putting social protection financing under prolonged strain. Postponing reforms may be politically comfortable, but it is economically expensive and socially regressive, because it transfers costs to those who do not yet vote: today’s young people and tomorrow’s taxpayers.
This leads to an ethical and institutional requirement: intergenerational equity.
Likewise, a well-designed social protection system must guarantee, at the same time, dignity for the elderly and real opportunities for the youngest. In this context, talking about social protection is also talking about material conditions that allow us to live, work, care and age safely.
Finally, none of this can be solved with slogans. Scientific consideration must return to the center of public decisions. If we continue to ignore demographic projections and actuarial assessments in pensions or inequality and territoriality metrics to calibrate benefits of a social nature, we will end up administering social protection with more ideology than evidence and the country will no longer have room for this.
Preparing the Social State to Navigate the Open Sea
Social protection in Portugal currently faces multiple pressures. In reality, there is an accelerated demographic aging, a persistently low birth rate, a dependency ratio that grows structurally and a job market that no longer guarantees the renewal of the contribution base. Added to this are profound territorial inequalities, rising healthcare costs associated with chronic diseases and adverse social determinants, such as inaccessible housing, which aggravate vulnerabilities and increase the demand for support.
If these challenges are not addressed with long-term reforms, all of this will combine into a systemic risk: the progressive erosion of the financial, distributive and institutional sustainability of the Welfare State.
The sustainability of social protection is like sailing on the open sea: global interdependence defines the currents, long termism prevents us from getting lost in the first fog, intergenerational equity keeps the boat stable and science works as a compass. Without these four instruments, our social protection system will not be successful.
PhD in Economics and University Professor
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