2026 is shaping up to be a year of heavy fire for Washington. The American Armed Forces succeed each other on open fronts, with almost no time to breathe.
From the North Atlantic table, with the issue of Greenland remaining suspended, for now, in the corridors of Davos, to the lightning operation in Caracas that ended with the capture of Maduro, through the pressure on Colombia and the strengthening of the embargo on Cuba, to the most recent and still ongoing attack on Persia, the map of American influence has once again moved at high speed.
It is evident that any analysis of this new conflict mixes confirmed facts, strategic readings and an inevitable dose of anticipation. When war begins, information is always partial and the future is written in pencil.
It is important, however, not to lose sight of the size of the country now at the center of the storm. Iran is not only the world’s third largest oil producer, it is a territorial giant.
Paradoxically, it is also a country marked by profound economic weaknesses, with low purchasing power and more than 91 million inhabitants deprived of their freedom and, in many cases, plunged into poverty.
What happens there requires a double reading, social and geopolitical.
Social, because Washington already admits the possibility of placing troops on the ground to ensure a change of regime in Tehran. In a country where more than half of the population is between 15 and 40 years old, demographic and generational pressure can be a decisive factor, especially when compared to the aging reality of Europe.
Even so, the regime that has ruled for 47 years did not fall apart at the first clash. He showed cohesion, ability to control and willingness to resist.
This resistance has human costs and clear signs, starting with attacks directed at Arab neighbors, in an attempt to expand the conflict and demonstrate strength.
The geopolitical aspect thickens the scenario. The position taken by the Gulf States triggered military reprisals that are expected to continue in the coming days. To these are added attempts at scattered attacks, designed to sow fear and project instability across borders, a characteristic feature of a power under pressure.
Portugal and the United Kingdom have already confirmed the availability of American military bases in their territories, under the terms of existing agreements. At the same time, Macron is once again rehearsing an alternative leadership, seeking to open space for a solution that leads to the end of a conflict whose outcome seems, for now, to be headed towards escalation.
After the attacks in recent days, including the most recent against the British base of Akrotiri, in Cyprus, NATO assured that it is adjusting devices and strategies to ensure the defense of its 32 member states.
The European Union, for its part, limited itself to calling for the protection of the Iranian people, respect for Human Rights and International Law, the end of the nuclear program and the preservation of the global oil supply chain.
The dominant feeling is that of restlessness. There is the possibility of freeing an oppressed people, even through force, an instrument that sustained this same oppression for decades.
There is also hope that a country with an ancient history and vast natural resources can find a path of development and openness.
It remains to be seen how long this conflict will last, what its true scale will be and what immediate consequences it will leave.
Even more decisive will be the realization that Iran will emerge from the ashes: a return to the past, to the era of the shah, or an unprecedented solution.
What is desired here is simple in formulation and complex in implementation: peace, prosperity and security, for Iran and for the world.
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