America, and the West in general, was identified as the main obstacle to the export of Islamic Revolution to the rest of the Middle East, starting with countries with vast Shia populations, and Israel turned into an obsession as the regime of ayatollahs seized the Palestinian cause for its own domestic and foreign policy. Eliminating the American military presence in the Middle East and simultaneously eliminating the Jewish State from the map were messages repeatedly made. To this end, Iran supported armed groups across all countries in the region, with Hezbollah being the most famous, seeking to bring together the Shiites of Lebanon and thus threaten Israel’s northern border. He even managed to add Hamas to his “Axis of Resistance”, even though the Palestinians are Sunni Muslims (and also Christians) and non-Shiites.
Trump became aware, before the final decision to launch this war, of the history of Iranian attacks on American interests. It’s long. For example, in the 1980s, in Lebanon, through Hezbollah. Also after 2003, in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, when Shiite militias attacked American bases in a country that to this day lives in the strange condition of being an ally of Washington and Tehran, which has become even more bizarre since Saturday.
Trump also shares the Israeli opinion that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon and, therefore, in 2018, in his first presidential term, he reversed the agreement negotiated by Barack Obama to freeze the Iranian project; and last year came to support Benjamin Netanyahu in the war against Iranian nuclear facilities to help with the nuclear bombs.bunkers that Israel does not have. Negotiations in recent weeks, after direct threats from Trump to the Iranian regime for crushing popular protests in Tehran, were unconvincing about the desire to reach an understanding.
Thus, the start of this war, with all the risks of escalation, and we will have to see how the Arab countries attacked by Iran will act, was decided based on the opportunity. Both the United States and Israel were convinced that Iran was experiencing a moment of special fragility, which would allow an attack that would not only end once and for all the nuclear objective, which the ayatollahs insist on denying, even leading to a change of regime, reversing 1979. This fragility would have to do with the weakness of Iran’s regional allies, greatly weakened by Israel’s attacks in response to the massacre of civilians by Hamas in October 2023, and by the propensity revealed by Iranian society to fight for change, as seen in the demonstrations at the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026, repressed with extreme violence, but in which even by the son of shah shouted. The Iranian response itself in 12 Day Waralthough causing casualties in Israel, showed that Iranian military power was, after all, far below what was feared.
But if the logic that led Trump to attack is now understandable, it remains to be seen when and how the United States intends to claim victory. The elimination of Khamenei and several other political and military officials did not result in a surrender. And a leadership replacement is underway. At the same time, there appears to be Iran’s determination to provoke an escalation of the situation, even if it is difficult to understand the gains of provoking the Arab monarchies. And, despite the Iranian community’s demonstrations abroad of joy at the possibility of change, it is uncertain that in the country, in an environment of war, critics of the regime would take to the streets in defiance of those who mourn for Khamenei in those same streets. If there is a change in the regime, it will probably be behind the scenes, with some sectors considering what type of concession can be made. They will have to combine the will to resist with the instinct for survival.
Trump said, however, that military operations are proceeding faster than expected, and even announced that there are contacts with the new transition leaders for a possible return to the negotiating table. But he is still far from being able to claim victory. It all depends on what comes next. As we saw in another time, in another geopolitical context, with another American president, in another Middle Eastern country, we know how a war starts, not how it ends. Trump, who has always been very critical of wars abroad, such as those started by George W. Bush, certainly knows what happened in Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam in 2003. In fact, the president even warned Iraqi Shiite parties a few weeks ago that the United States would not tolerate them choosing a prime minister who in the past has shown himself incapable of governing and who is also too close to Iranian interests.
Complicated? That’s the Middle East.
Leave a Reply