Portugal does not face an immediate structural crisis. It grows above the Euro Zone average. Unemployment is under control. Exports resist. But stability is not a strategy. And growth is not convergence.
Portuguese productivity remains around 25% below the European Union average. This is the true indicator of risk: productivity determines wages, innovation and the ability to compete globally. Without it, growth is circumstantial.
In 2022, Portugal invested around 1.7% of GDP in research and development. The European average exceeds 2.2%. Countries like Sweden, Austria or Germany invest above 3%, South Korea exceeds 4%. These numbers are not academic statistics – they are clear signals of strategic priority.
The problem is not a lack of talent. it’s a lack of scale and focus.
If we want to avoid gradual irrelevance, we need concrete decisions.
First: increase investment in R&D to 3% of GDP by 2030, with at least two-thirds coming from the private sector. This requires stable tax incentives for a decade, public-private co-investment funds and radical simplification of application mechanisms.
Second: create three strategic industrial hubs on an international scale – for example, green energy and hydrogen in the south, industrial technology and automation in the north, sea economy and biotechnology on the Atlantic coast. Concentration generates critical mass; Dispersion perpetuates mediocrity.
Third: reformulate university funding criteria, introducing economic impact metrics – registered patents, startups created, industrial contracts. Knowledge that does not generate economic value loses competitive traction.
Fourth: encourage business growth. Portugal has an excess of micro-enterprises and a shortage of global medium-sized companies. Creating progressive tax benefits for companies that double exports in five years or that exceed a certain productivity threshold would be a clear sign of a pro-scale policy.
Fifth: reform risk culture. Simplify insolvency and restructuring processes to reduce the stigma of failure. Innovative economies learn quickly, because they fail quickly.
Meanwhile, the United States reinforces industrial policy with hundreds of billions of dollars. China consolidates almost 30% of global industrial production. The Middle East invests aggressively in technological diversification. The world is choosing positioning.
The question is simple: do we want to compete or just survive?
Complacency arises when we celebrate European funds without measuring structural returns. When we confuse administrative execution with economic strategy. When we believe that current stability guarantees the future.
Does not guarantee.
Small countries cannot be reactive: either they choose focus and scale, or they become peripheral in global value chains.
The biggest risk is not facing transformation, it is reaching the next decade with the same ambition as the previous one.
Relevance is not an acquired right.
It is a strategic decision repeated over time.
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