The attack by Israel and the United States against Iran could have an impact on the oil market due to a potential drop in supply, as Iran has significant production and could also close the Strait of Hormuz.
On Friday night, the price of a barrel of Brent oil (the reference in Europe, for delivery in April) closed the London futures market on a high, reaching 72.48 dollars, the highest value since seven months ago, due to geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
Iran, one of the founding members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, produced approximately 3.1 million barrels per day last January, according to independent sources, about 11% of the total production of the group’s 12 members.
Within the OPEC+ alliance, Iran was the fourth largest producer by 2025, behind Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In recent months it has been overtaken by the United Arab Emirates.
In previous decades, production fluctuated as various international sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States against the ayatollah regime, were intensified or eased.
With the signing, in 2015, of the historic nuclear agreement with the United States and other world powers, which provided significant commercial relief to Iran in exchange for limiting its nuclear capabilities, the oil sector experienced a major boost.
Until 2018, when United States President Donald Trump, then in his first term, decided to withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions, Iranian oil production rose to around 3.8 million barrels per day.
From then on, it fell again, reaching 2.88 million barrels per day in 2023, although it recovered in 2024 to 3.2 million barrels per day, a level that was maintained throughout last year.
Still, Iran’s oil production, while considerable, represents only about 3% of global demand.
With reserves estimated at 208 billion barrels of crude, according to OPEC data, Iran has the third largest reserves in the world, after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
The attacks launched today could provoke Iranian retaliation against the oil fields of countries allied with the United States in the Persian Gulf and/or a blockade of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world’s crude oil passes).
In 2024, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily (about one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade also passed through the Strait).
This narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea is also used by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s main producer and currently the world’s second largest producer, after the United States.
It is also the crude export route for three other OPEC members: Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
In total, these five countries (Saudi Arabia, the United States, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) produced around 23 million barrels per day in January, 22% of the oil the world currently needs, according to OPEC’s most recent calculations.
Last year, after the first attacks by Israel and the United States, the Iranian Parliament had already called for the closure of the strait.
A closure that could have serious repercussions for the global economy, with China being one of the most affected countries as more than 80% of the oil and gas that transits through the Strait of Hormuz are destined for Asian markets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Analysts estimate that China buys almost 90% of Iranian crude exports, which means that Beijing meets up to 10% of its demand there.
Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipeline networks — capable of transporting a maximum of 2.6 million barrels per day — that allow them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IEA.
Lusa
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