The Islamic Republic is going through a unprecedented power vacuum. However, theIranian President Masud Pezeshkian has already set the succession machinery in motion. This Sunday, he confirmed that the Leadership Council has begun deliberations to appoint the successor of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who died after the military operationr Epic Furylaunched jointly by Israel and the United States.
In a video statement broadcast on state television, Pezeshkian assured that the institutions of the Islamic Republic “have activated the planned mechanisms.” to guarantee the continuity of political power and religious in the country, in the midst of one of the biggest crises that Iran has faced since the 1979 revolution.
As the Leadership Council makes a decision, the Ayatollah Alireza Arafi will provisionally assume the functions of the supreme leader. This measure is framed within the succession system provided for by the Constitution, with the supervision of the Guardian Council from Iranand composite religious organ by six jurists and six clerics in charge of supervising the electoral processes and guaranteeing constitutional compliance.
The interim triumvirate
For the moment, the Ayatollah Alireza Arafi will be part of the provisional triumvirate that, in compliance with the article 111 of the Iranian Constitutionwill temporarily assume the functions of the country’s leadership during this turbulent transition period, together with the president Masoud Pezeshkian and Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, head of the Judiciary.
The supreme leader occupies a central role in Iran’s complex Shiite theocracy. It is the maximum religious authority and although it shares political power with other institutions, maintains the final authority in all matters of state.
In addition, he serves as commander in chief of the Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the powerful paramilitary force that plays a key role in the country’s internal security. The latter, in fact, has been in charge of repressing the protests that have been unleashed in recent months on the streets of the country.
Although constitutional mechanisms have been activated to ensure the continuity of the regime, several experts consulted by this newspaper maintain that its survival is uncertain. For example, Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran program, does not rule out a struggle for power and even the possibility of a coup by the Revolutionary Guard.
Generally speaking, the transition could continue three possible trajectories: continuity of the regime, military takeover or total collapse of the system. These options, however, are not mutually exclusive. “It is very likely that the transition will begin as a process managed to preserve continuity, but will eventually stumble or evolve into an explicit military takeover or even state collapse,” he notes. Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, in an analysis.
The trusted men
The one who seems to have taken the reins in the first hours of war is, however, the chief of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijania close confidant of the late Khamenei.
“We will make the Zionist criminals and dishonorable Americans repent,” he wrote. Larijani on the social network
Another of the names called to play a crucial role in the transition is that of Ahmad Vahidiformer Minister of Defense and Interior, named this Sunday commander of the Revolutionary Guard, according to the official press.
Vahidi is, of course, no moderate. “He participated in Iran-Contra: he met with the American delegation that traveled to Tehran in 1986, led by Bud McFarlaneto sell American weapons in exchange for the release of American hostages in Beirut,” recalls the analyst Kim Ghattas.
Since 2022 he has been subject to United States sanctions for his role in repressing successive waves of protests against the regime.
No clear successor
Unlike his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, Khamenei has not paved the way for a clear heir, leading to numerous rumors and speculations about succession.
The CIA considers it likely that the heir will come from the ranks of the toughest wing of the Revolutionary Guard, according to what the agency announced this Saturday. Reuters. This was made known to Trump by the agency itself in the run-up to the operation.
Vahidi will be in the pools, but Khamenei’s three preferred candidates were the aforementioned Mohseni-Eje’i and the moderate cleric Hasan Khomeini, grandson of the ayatollah. Ruhollah Khomeini. His chief of staff, Ali Asghar Hejazi, whom Israel considers dead, also spoke.
Specialists maintain that Khamenei’s second son, Mojtabahas the favor of some factions of the regime, but it was the ayatollah himself who had told his followers that he did not want the position of supreme leader to become hereditary.
Khamenei had authorized a small circle of political and military allies to make decisions in the event of his death or incommunicado in the course of a war, and established four levels of succession for the highest-ranking military and political positions that he himself appointed, according to Reuters.
This group is made up of his chief of staff, his main military advisor and former commander in chief of the Guard, General Yahya Rahim Safaviand Brigadier General Mohammed Baqer Alibafformer commander of the Revolutionary Guard and current president of Parliament.
Atypical transition
What seems certain is that the Islamic Republic is going to dust off the constitutional manual to organize Khamenei’s succession. Until now, there had only been one other transfer of power in the office of the supreme leader: when Grand Ayatollah Khomeini, father of the revolution, died in June 1989 at the age of 86, the same age at which his successor died this Saturday.
On paper, Iran’s supreme leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body chosen by popular vote every eight years. Candidates who aspire to enter the Assembly must be previously examined and approved by the Council of Guardians.
When the position becomes vacant, due to death or resignation, the Assembly of Experts meets to elect a successor. A simple majority is enough to appoint the new supreme leader.
According to the Iranian Constitution, the candidate must be a high-ranking jurist with a deep knowledge of Shiite jurisprudence, in addition to meeting a series of leadership conditions.
It is true that Khamenei did not have the religious credentials that the position demanded. When he was elected in 1989 he was a mid-ranking cleric, not grand ayatollah, as established by the Constitution. So much so that the Assembly of Experts first designated him as “provisional” leader“and he himself admitted that he did not consider himself qualified.
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