The public budget surplus recorded at the end of January was the highest in the last three years, at the start of the year. This official balance recorded by Finance in the month in question (+1.8 billion euros) also shows that this is the third best January ever recorded, since 2013, and right around the time that Depression Kristin devastated central Portugal and other parts of the country with cyclonic rain and winds.
It was in the early hours of January 28th that the storm hit the mainland, destroying thousands of homes, industries and farms, leaving almost a million people without electricity. A “calamity”.
According to a survey carried out by DN based on budget execution data released by Finance, the surplus in public accounts in the logic of public accounting (cash perspective, that of the money that actually enters and leaves public coffers), the surplus exceeded R$1.8 billion in January alone.
You have to go back to January 2023 to find a bigger balance this month. Three years ago it exceeded R$2.1 billion. It was the foreshadowing of what would happen that year, when the government delivered the largest budget surplus in Portuguese democracy, equivalent to 1.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or 3.4 billion euros, here from the perspective of national accounting (logic of commitments).
According to the series from the Budgetary Entity (formerly the General Directorate of the Budget), supervised by the Minister of Finance Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, this January 2026 is, as stated, the third largest January (in value) in the Finance series. As mentioned, The first month of 2023 was bigger (with a surplus of R$2.1 billion); the second highest record in Januarys was that of 2022.
For 2026 as a whole, The current government’s target in the State Budget is a surplus of 0.1% of GDP.
The dazzling start to this year’s budget execution was, however, as mentioned, immediately overshadowed by the destruction caused by Kristin and the rest of the storm train that followed.
In response to the events, the government announced, at the beginning of February, a first aid package, including financial support, credit guarantees and payment moratoriums, of 2.5 billion euros, a value that was revised upwards last week to 3.5 billion euros.
The Minister of Economy, Manuel Castro Almeida, estimated at the beginning of February, and in a very preliminary way, that these storms will have generated a loss of four billion euros to the economy (people, companies and the State), but several analysts say that the number is underestimated, which could amount to five or even six billion euros.
According to the Finance budget execution, the margin at the end of January was, at least, comfortable. “Public Administrations (PA) presented, in January 2026, a surplus of 1824.3 million euros, which represents an increase of 188.4 million euros compared to the same period last year (an increase of 11.5%), result of a growth in revenue (6.1%) greater than expenditure (5%)”.
According to the execution bulletin, the primary balance, that is, without counting interest expenses to be paid to creditors, “amounted to 2078.7 million euros, an improvement [aumento] of 182.6 million euros when compared to that obtained in the previous year”.
The strong growth “of 6.1% in AP revenue resulted, fundamentally, from the evolution of contributory (8.3%) and non-tax and non-contributory revenue (11.8%), complemented by tax revenue (2.7%)”.
According to the Treasury, “the positive variation in primary expenditure of 5.3% is mainly based on increases in transfers (7.4%), personnel expenses (5.5%) and investment (25.3%)”.
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