On May 1, 2025, after the cessation of Mike Waltz, Marco Rubio He became both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. It was the first time in fifty years—since Henry Kissinger during the Ford Administration—that something like this was happening in the United States and that seemed to indicate that Trump wanted a government with a clear interlocutor in matters of foreign relations and with a single voice for the conflicts that devastate the planet.
Quite the opposite. Currently, Marco Rubio—who, in reality, barely leaves the United States—is but one of the many advisors who claim to speak on behalf of the White House.
Pete HegsethSecretary of Defense, is one of them. So is the vice president JD Vance. Besides, of course, there is the duo formed by Steve Witkoff y Jared Kushnertwo real estate investors who travel the world to meet with the different parties in conflict without belonging to the diplomatic corps.
All of them have replaced the early Trumpists who dreamed of imposing their criteria on American foreign policy in this second term.
Among them, the general Keith Kelloggwho has not yet been removed as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia although, in reality, being vetoed by the Kremlin, he does not perform that function, or the senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Grahamanother fervent defender of the Ukrainian cause who has obviously fallen from grace, even though he continues to accompany Trump on his trips on Air Force One.
“Significant advances”
There are many voices speaking at the same time and thus it is difficult to separate the chaff from the wheat. In the case of Iran and its nuclear program, for example, in the same week, we have heard Witkoff say that Iran was “a week away” from being able to make a nuclear bomb, Rubio deny it, but emphasize that “they are redoing their program, even though we told them not to” and Vance assure that they have proof that they are trying to make an atomic bomb.
No one provides such evidence and there are many experts who deny that this is the case.
Everyone is careful to remember that the attack on June 22 had “destroyed” the Iranian nuclear program, as stated at the time. Donald Trump with a vehemence not supported by any data either, but none explains how it is possible that something that had been “razed” in June, in February of the following year, poses an existential threat.
They also agree that Trump prefers the diplomatic route – as the president himself expressed in his State of the Union speech – but that “he has not made any decision in this regard.”
All except Graham, who said last week that Trump “had already decided,” although he did not want to clarify in what sense.
Meanwhile, Jared Kushner and Witkoff remain in Geneva, meeting tomorrow and afternoon with the Iranian Foreign Minister under the mediation of Oman.
Precisely, it was the Omani Foreign Minister, Badr Albusaidithe most optimistic in his assessment of these meetings: “We have ended the day with significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran. We will soon resume consultations in their respective capitals. Discussions at the technical level will continue next week in Vienna.”
The normal thing would have been for this comment to have come from the mouth of an American negotiator, but, again, this function is delegated to third parties, which, in some way, makes us distrust its veracity.
The mistakes of 2003
And all this confusion around the real threat of the Iranian nuclear program and the possible US military intervention is grating among its allies.
According to The Spectatorthe relationship between Keir Starmer and Trump would be going through his worst moment and a good part of the blame lies with the transfer of the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius, which puts at risk the use of the military base that the British have on the island of Diego García and which can also be used by the United States.
Although the White House has not formally requested the use of this base, relatively close to the Arabian Sea, for any operation in Iran and it is not clear that the British are going to refuse such use, the truth is that distrust is maximum right now.
“It smells like Iraq,” say senior British Government officials when asked about possible military intervention in Iran, outside of all international legality and with justifications that vary depending on the speaker.
“Their risk spectrum is significantly different,” says a British Foreign Office source. “International law, due process of law… Americans don’t give a shit about all of that.”
In 2003, Tony Blair He did not hesitate when it came to being next to George W. Bush in the invasion of Iraq despite the fact that the supposed evidence of the existence of weapons of mass destruction was an invention sponsored by Colin Powell y Condoleezza Rice.
In 2026, Starmer does not want to make the same mistakes.
Israel’s time?
It’s not even clear that Trump himself wants to get into this mess. It has mobilized the best of its Navy and its aviation to pressure the ayatollahs, but this pressure has hardly served any purpose.
The Americans want Iran to renounce any nuclear program and the ayatollahs want to be allowed peaceful use of said energy, something they have already managed to get out of Iran. Barack Obama in the 2015 agreement.
Trump always criticized this agreement and, in fact, he pulled his country out of it in 2018, a year or so into his first term. Obviously, he is not going to accept an almost verbatim reissue.
Tehran also does not want to give up on the destruction of its conventional ballistic missiles, another of the American demands… although, in reality, this is a request that comes from Israel and some Arab countries and that hardly affects the United States.
The “hope” now seems to be that Israel will open hostilities, so that American participation will not be so active.
Not only is Tehran not Caracas – nor is it that the Iranian army has so far shown itself to be especially powerful in the various skirmishes with its neighbors – but there are many US military bases in the area that could be victims of desperate attacks by Iran or one of its related militias.
The “significant progress” touted by the Omani mediator may be an unexpected concession by one of the parties or a kick forward.
After all, Iran and the United States were also moving forward with their meetings in Doha when Operation Midnight Hammer took place on June 22.
It’s been a week since Trump gave himself ten days to make a final decision. Although the American president has never been a great follower of ultimatums, his position of strength suffers from these ambiguities.
We should know something definitive about it soon. The question is who will explain it to us and how.
Leave a Reply