Four years after Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine promising a quick victorythe largest war in Europe since 1945 has entered a deadlock.
Moscow controls today almost 20% of the Ukrainian territorybut his offense has slowed down drastically — he barely won a 0.79% additional in the last year—already a enormous cost. A recent estimate of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) places in up 1.8 million military casualties combined – dead, wounded, missing and captured – of Russia and Ukraine, including up to 325 thousand Russian deaths. The UN has confirmed more than 15 thousand civilians killedy 2025 was the deadliest year since the beginning of the invasion.
On the battlefield, the drones They define the fight. Once used for reconnaissance, they now attack tanks, refineries and terrorize cities. The russian bombings they have destroyed Ukraine’s energy grid during successive winters; Kyiv has responded with long-range attacks inside Russian territory.
The diplomacy He hasn’t had the best luck. The president Trumpwho promised end the war quicklyhas organized summits and sent representatives, but the talks continue stagnant about Donbas and security guarantees. Putin insists that Ukraine withdraw from partially occupied regions and abandon ambitions to join NATO.
The president Zelensky rejects territorial concessions, warning that the Russian leader “has not broken the Ukrainians” and that surely I would take advantage of any pause to regroup and attack again in a few years. “Will we lose? Of course not”he told the BBC, arguing that stopping Putin is a global imperative.
Europe has stepped up its support as American military aid decreasedand the G7 —with Trump included— has reaffirmed his “unwavering support for Ukraine”. However, tensions are visible on both sides. Ukraine faces a growing debt already a mass displacement (5.9 million refugees abroad), while Russia’s growth has slowed slowed down to 1% due to sanctions and war spending.
In Russia, the repression has intensified and prices have gone upeven when polls show supposedly broad support for the “special military operation.” Putin once compared himself to Peter the Greatrecovering lost territories. Instead, his bet has Europe’s security map redesigned, increased NATO membership y gone to
both nations in a costly war of attrition with no clear end in sight.
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