Today marks exactly four years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There were certainly surprises, in a contradictory sense, from the failure of the Russian tank ride to Kiev, to Russia’s ability to resist the West’s mixed retaliation, with economic sanctions on Moscow on the one hand, and material support for Ukraine’s war effort.
What is not surprising is the mortality. On one side and the other. The numbers are kept secret, or thrown by the enemy to cast discouragement, but they will certainly be impressive. The greatest evidence of this is the need for new recruits and the difficulty in obtaining them, for both belligerents. Away from the battlefront, the two countries, especially Russia, may even try to maintain the illusion that everything works, but the consequences of the fighting in Donbass will be felt for decades after the war ends.
And when will it end? On any date before 2028, as Masala predicts? Another German, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose country leads the European rearmament effort, has now said, also as a warning, but with terrible pragmatism, that “this war will not stop until both sides are exhausted, militarily or economically”.
The newspaper The Worldwho in today’s edition analyzed the impasse in the war and also the impasse in NATO about what to do, highlighted that the phrase said, loudly and clearly, by Merz at the Munich Security Conference is what many military leaders think. Also quoted by the French newspaper, Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Security Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), summarized the situation on the ground as follows: “Both sides are on fire, but the question is which one is burning faster. It’s the same race, somewhat cynical, that has been going on since 2022.”
The Russian system, where Vladimir Putin has unquestionable power, seems to give Moscow the advantage in this shared descent into hell, as Volodymyr Zelensky has to deal with the scrutiny of both the Ukrainians and the Western allies, but in the end, until we see, the result is such mutual destruction.
This makes serious negotiations even more urgent, aimed at stopping the circle of death and destruction, even if it is known from the outset that Russia and Ukraine come from irreconcilable positions, the first having already officially annexed territories from another country and the second defending its sovereignty. The path to these serious negotiations, not simply gaining time for one or the other, depends largely on the ability of Americans – here Trump counts a lot – and Europeans to decide on a joint action that will force Russia to rethink its strategy and give Ukraine the conditions to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
It was also important that China, which aims to be seen as a strong and responsible actor on the international stage, made its Russian ally feel that at some point peace must return. Only in this way will it be freed from the suspicion that it takes advantage of the war in Europe, whether by buying oil at friendly prices or, on another level, by diverting attention from its rise.
The success of this action to end the war also depends on what Ukraine’s allies are willing to do for its sovereignty and security in the future. It is important to understand each other or they will go down in history as having encouraged the resistance of the Ukrainians and then leaving them essentially alone in a war that is unequal.
Four years! It’s almost as much as the First World War. And it is longer than the Soviet war against the Nazis lasted after Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941, in the middle of World War II.
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