The new 15% global tariff announced by Washington is expected to benefit countries such as China and Brazil, while penalizing traditional US allies, after the Supreme Court blocked the White House’s previous trade policy, according to an analysis.
According to data released by the trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert (GTA), Brazil will be the country with the biggest reduction in the average rate of tariffs applied by the USA, with a drop of 13.6%, followed by China, with a reduction of 7.1%.
In contrast, Washington’s longtime allies are expected to bear the brunt of the new tax, announced after the United States Supreme Court found much of Trump’s previous trade policy illegal.
The president had used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on US trading partners, but a majority decision by the Supreme Court invalidated this strategy.
Following the trial, Trump announced that he would replace tariffs imposed under IEEPA with a 10% global rate, which he raised to 15% on Saturday. The measure should come into force today, valid for 150 days, after which it will require new authorization from Congress.
On Sunday, US trade representative Jamieson Greer defended the new regime and promised to move forward with investigations into trade practices that could result in new tariffs.
Greer stated that, although the new legal basis does not offer the same flexibility as IEEPA, the US Administration intends to ensure “continuity” in the current tariff program, resorting to investigations that justify the imposition of additional fees.
According to the official, the increase in the overall rate from 10% to 15% was due to the “urgency of the situation”, which requires the “full use of presidential powers”.
Greer also assured that he has maintained contacts with commercial partners, including the European Union, highlighting that no country has indicated an intention to abandon the agreements already signed with Washington.
Quoted by the British newspaper Financial Times, economist Johannes Fritz, executive director of the GTA and author of the analysis, stated that countries such as China, Brazil, Mexico and Canada – previously targeted by specific executive orders under the IEEPA – were those that benefited most from the change in the regime.
Asian manufacturers such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia, often criticized for recording high trade surpluses with the USA, should also benefit, especially in the clothing, furniture, toys and plastics sectors.
But Greer said that his office plans to open investigations into unfair trade practices related to excess industrial capacity, which could cover several Asian countries.
The official added that the new global tariff should not affect the next meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, aimed at “ensuring stability and compliance with commitments made” by Beijing, namely in the purchase of North American agricultural products, Boeing aircraft and the supply of rare earths.
Fritz warned, however, that the future of the tariff regime remains uncertain, as the US administration has signaled its intention to use Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose additional country-specific measures. The US has already initiated investigations under this provision in relation to Brazil and China.
The new global tax is expected to particularly affect allies whose exports to the US are concentrated in sectors such as steel, aluminum and automobiles, which are already subject to other tariffs that remain in force.
The European Commission demanded “complete clarity” from Washington, arguing that the current situation is not favorable to “fair, balanced and mutually beneficial” transatlantic trade, as provided for in the agreement between the EU and the US.
“A deal is a deal. As the USA’s largest trading partner, the EU expects the commitments made to be respected,” declared the institution.
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