Overcoming Challenges in Times of Uncertainty

Companies and governments and European institutions have felt enormous discomfort, in recent years, with global geopolitical uncertainty. A cruel war on its doorstep, in Ukraine, almost four years ago, was joined by a trade and tariff war launched by a US president who is willing – if he sees any small advantage in it – to break all the old alliances and the World Order of the last 80 years. This was what was seen in the issue of Greenland and the kidnapping of the president of Venezuela to take over the local oil industry. We will see how the situation in Cuba evolves now, which is getting worse every day.

Despite being slow to react and bureaucratic in the decision-making process, Europe took steps to change its shell – it is arming itself, producing more and better equipment – and its companies, after the first clash, ended up adapting “to the environment of constant uncertainty”. In a presentation in Paris by Coface, the world-leading multinational in credit insurance considered that “the year 2025 was much calmer than the political turbulence and the tariff war suggested”. And company experts, such as Ruben Nizard and Bruno de Moura Fernandes, say that “there are sectors that are now in better conditions to continue growing”.

Or as manager António Ramalho said, at the recent Atlantic Future Forum: “The world has a much lower level of uncertainty than what we could think”, which is “predictable in its unpredictability”. The numbers give substance to this: after almost stagnation in the European Union in 2023 (with growth of 0.4%), the bloc grew 1.0% in 2024, with growth of 1.6% predicted last year. World GDP grew 3% in 2023, 2024 and 2025 (estimated) and stock indices accumulated significant appreciation in the last decade.

In other words: the succession of disruptive statements, geopolitical tensions and political shocks no longer truly surprises economic agents.

May these or any other difficult times – Portugal is now facing another one of them, with the damage caused by the succession of storms – always be seen as a challenge to our ability to adapt to discomfort. And may they be a testament to our determination.