The “sleeping NATO” and the future of Europe

The new geopolitical reality has brought transformations that, until a few years ago, would have seemed unthinkable. Among them is the United States’ willingness to reevaluate the alliance system that has sustained much of its global power since 1945. However, the main risk of this strategic realignment may not be the one that many Europeans anticipate.

The recent intervention by the US Secretary of State at the Munich Security Conference confirmed an already visible trend: Washington wants European countries to assume primary responsibility for the continent’s security. Marco Rubio expressed this position in a more conciliatory tone than that adopted by Trump or Vance, but the essential message was clear. The United States will maintain its commitment to Europe and be willing to intervene if it faces a threat comparable to the Third Reich or the Soviet Union, not out of altruism, but because their national interest demands it. Geostrategy manuals dictate that the dominant maritime power cannot allow Eurasia to be under the control of a single great power, be it Germany on “steroids”, Russia or China. In this sense, Europeans will be able, from the outset, to count on American support in extreme scenarios, although it is clear to everyone that the devil will be in the details.

In practice, this vision is close to the “sleeping NATO” thesis, proposed in 2022 by British academic Sumantra Maitra. According to this reading, the United States will continue to guarantee the nuclear umbrella and the naval air presence in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, but will progressively reduce the land contingents stationed in Europe. Washington believes that this stance will allow it to preserve its influence on the Old Continent and maintain solid transatlantic economic ties, which are essential for the prosperity of both blocs and for the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency, regardless of ideological differences. As Maitra said in a recent interview with Politico: “I may hate my neighbor, but if his house is on fire I will help put out the fire.”