Coface presented this Tuesday, February 17th, in Paris, its usual risk analysis report for 2026, entitled “Moment of Truth”.
“We call it the ‘moment of truth’ because last year was very turbulent, with immense volatility, and we observed that economic activity remained, nevertheless, very stable in relation to 2024”, explained Xavier Durand, CEO of the company that holds the global leadership in credit insurance and complementary specialized services. Coface, which took advantage of the occasion to also celebrate its 80th anniversary in France, outlined the general outline of the global economic context for the coming months, with all economists leaving the same warning: “we foresee all this if no more risks materialize”.
Those that are considered by those responsible for each area of the globe are, above all, political and social. In a presentation led by Ruben Nizard – Director of sectoral research and political risk – and by Bruno de Moura Fernandes – Director of Macroeconomics –, the main conclusions are clear: the year 2025 was much calmer than the political turbulence and the tariff war had predicted; There are sectors that are now in better conditions to continue growing and a new system in terms of globalization is clearly being designed.
But, contrary to what many predicted since Covid-19, deglobalization did not happen and Coface even throws a challenge on the table: let’s keep the doors open, and ensure that the turmoil passes with as little damage as possible.
“It was surprising what happened in 2025, actually,” Durand continues. And that is why, he warns, “as we enter 2026, we have to consider that the events that happened in 2025 could still impact economic activity”.
In raw materials, energy and food prices fell year-on-year, and metals soared – “good news for some industries that in recent years, and especially in Europe, have suffered from the rise in gas prices caused by the war in Ukraine”, highlighted Ruben Nizard.
“Industrial metals have soared in the last two months and, to understand this, we have to look at the issue of the distribution chain”, continued the CEO in front of a room full of journalists from around the world. “We have increasing demand – be it for the development of Artificial Intelligence models, through increased investment in Defense and aeronautics – at a time when there is continued talk of energy transition, and we have a supply that is not very…elastic. That is why we have seen an increase in price. And these metals will impact the industry. What we foresee is a relatively positive environment for the majority of these industries, despite everything”, he notes.
Bruno Fernandes, for his part, called for attention to the reorganization of global business dynamics, which, in response to Trump’s tariff threats, has not diminished. It simply changed. “When we look at China, we see that exports to the US have fallen a lot. But then we look at Vietnam, and we see that exports to the US have increased. And imports from China have also grown, so what we see is that countries are trying to get around the tariffs, but that this does not have as significant an effect as expected”, highlights the economist.
In fact, the tariff war has, until now, mainly penalized North American companies and consumers. “We estimate that around 90% of the costs have been or are being absorbed by North American companies”, which has significantly impacted their performance. Bankruptcies increased in the USA by almost 15%, says Coface, in the last half of last year, compared to the same period in 2024.
Coface, which revised down the risk assessment for the food and agriculture sector in the USA, in 2026, justifies the decision with the weather conditions, which had an impact on crops, the number of heads of cattle and, invariably, “increasing prices”, explains Marcus Carias, an economist who follows the North American market. “In addition, the problem of lack of labor in the distribution sector – which is not improving with the migration policies imposed by Donald Trump – has caused a perfect storm on the supply side in the country”, he continues.
Still, the fact is that revenue has not dropped significantly, and that the economy continues to evolve gradually – naturally pulling the global economy. In conjunction with the growth of China, where a slight slowdown is expected this year.
For Carias, despite the warning signs, there is also no doubt about the fact that the dollar continues to be the most valuable currency in the world, and no changes are expected in this field. “The dollar is not as good a currency as it used to be, but it is still better than all the others”, he guarantees. “We have seen this movement of central banks that are buying a lot of gold to increase their reserves, but they are not drastically reducing the reserves they have in dollars”, he observes.
As for Europe, it will have to continue working on a kind of group therapy if it really wants to establish itself as an alternative to North American predominance. This is because the Old Continent continues to be penalized, considers Bruno Fernandes, due to the fact that there are many national interests working against a more concerted approach on the world board. Speaking to Diário de Notícias, this Frenchman with Portuguese origins regrets that Member States continue to put their benefits above a more macro vision, which could help Europe gain strength, at a time when the balance of forces is, for the first time in decades, being called into question.
From a more micro perspective, for Portugal, the challenge, believes the economist, “is to carefully monitor the real estate market, whose inflation is making people’s lives very difficult – despite creating a lot of wealth for others. The numbers don’t lie, real estate and tourism are generating wealth. But these things, as a rule, don’t last forever. You need to monitor them carefully”, he says by way of warning.
*DN traveled at the invitation of Coface
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