The electoral results are unequivocal: António José Seguro obtained an expressive and clear vote, he is the new President of the Republic with a victory that must be affirmed without ambiguity or relativization. Seguro defeated Ventura, doubled his vote and won in all districts and autonomous regions.
In a context of prolonged social crisis and catastrophe, marked by insistent discourse on civic demobilization, significant electoral participation constitutes a relevant political signal. It demonstrates that citizens responded and confirms that postponing the elections would have been a mistake.
Political lucidity begins exactly where relief ends. The far right was not neutralized, it was contained – and that is very different. Ventura tries to turn the defeat into new momentum. The political field it represents remains active, waiting for the next opportunity, feeding on the social and economic factors that remain unresolved.
These elections exposed the crisis on the Portuguese right. While the left and center-left objectively converged around Seguro’s candidacy in the second round, the right was divided. One part refuses the authoritarian and extremist drift, and realizes that it can be swallowed; another accepts it, normalizes it and is willing to follow it with the aim of achieving a parliamentary alliance to govern.
It is in this conflict that Ventura is betting: deepening the fracture, forcing choice, eroding what remains of the traditional right. The reconfiguration of the right has gone from being a theoretical hypothesis to becoming a concrete political horizon – and potentially the biggest factor of political instability in the coming years.
José Luís Carneiro’s line, now with Insurance as PR, may tend to converge with the Government, diluting itself as an alternative. On the left, the scenario is also not simple. It once again faces the risk of a bear hug, with the Socialist Party exerting relentless pressure in the next legislative elections. Celebrating without reflecting – and without correcting course – can be costly.
As for the new tenant of Belém, the feeling of relief at his election cannot be converted into indulgence. The labor package will be a first decisive test: preventing the erosion of workers’ rights will be decisive in measuring their political autonomy. Reconstruction of devastated areas will require more than declarations. The State Budget for 2027 – and the presidential behavior in the face of a possible failure – will constitute another moment of test. In international politics, no changes are foreseen – and perhaps that is precisely the problem.
However, there remains a structural issue that continues to be pushed into the background: the progressive weakening of the Social State. The extreme right feeds on the legitimate revolt produced by neoliberal policies in health, housing and work. Ignoring this reality is opening the space even further to authoritarianism. A presidential victory will only be politically consistent if it is accompanied by democratic vigilance and a firm response to the inequalities that fuel discontent.
This was a necessary victory. But it does not end the political cycle – it opens a new, more demanding phase. The consistency of this victory will depend not on the enthusiasm of the moment, but on democratic vigilance and the ability to respond to the inequalities that continue to corrode Portuguese society
Independent councilor, Citizens for Lisbon, at CML
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