In denial
Luís Montenegro made a mistake and lost. He made a mistake by choosing a candidate who did not support his political field. He later made a mistake by equating Seguro and Ventura as two extremists. And he was wrong again when he considered that “nothing changes” with the result of the presidential elections, when practically everyone understands that nothing will be the same as before. Montenegro and the PSD are the big losers of the presidential elections and the state of denial they have been plunged into since January 18th is revealing of how quickly they were overcome by circumstances. They lost momentum and political initiative. And they will pay dearly for it.
The error of underestimation
Ventura is the most intuitive Portuguese politician of his generation. He sniffs out opportunities well and benefits, like no one else, from the fact that he doesn’t care about facts and reality. If the reality doesn’t suit him, he builds a new one, even if, to do so, he has to do political stunts that would make a circus contortionist blush with envy. If there were a Competition Authority for the policy, Ventura would have already been fined and suspended for unfair competition. But, if we look at the “Chega” phenomenon as a socio-electoral experience, abstract the Ventura element and just focus on the result, there is a lot to learn and dissect about the causes and reasons for more than 30% of voters voting for a notorious compulsive liar. It’s just that, amidst so much misrepresentation and so much alternative reality, there are those who find answers, truths and even fragments of identity. And there are even those who look at Ventura as a kind of Evita for the new shirtless men of Portuguese politics. Be that as it may, no one else can make the mistake of underestimating you. Ventura is here to stay and it is urgent that PS and PSD learn to deal with him.
Between the past and the future
António José Seguro’s victory is, above all, his own and a very concrete response to the absence of true political references in the current party spectrum. Of course, socialists have reason to celebrate. But they have them in direct proportion to the existing ones to be worried. The electoral erosion of the PT cannot be resolved with the election of Seguro, nor with the strategy of changing something so that everything stays the same. The PT member needs to reconnect with his electoral base, win back the middle class and be the modern solution for young people who disbelieve in the country’s future and in the political system’s ability to respond to their concerns. In short, the PS needs to dare to do things differently and reform speeches and protagonists. For this, it is clear that you also need time. The next National Congress will clarify whether or not the leader can synthesize the past and the future.
Television soaps
It seems like an eternity ago that Emídio Rangel proclaimed that “television sells soap or a president of the Republic with equal effectiveness”. But, after Marques Mendes, SIC continues to look for the new soap. “Seen like this”, there are things that don’t change…
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