aims for the Presidency of the Republic

This Sunday, February 8, António José Seguro and André Ventura will contest the second round of the presidential elections, the first since 1986 between Freitas do Amaral and Mário Soaresgiven that normally the President of the Republic is elected in the first round in Portugal.

The result of this second round has been widely anticipated. It is expected – all the polls point in this direction – that victory will fall to the socialist António José Segurowhich should collect the votes of the voters of the left-wing and democratic right-wing parties.

Andre Venturathe far-right candidate of the Chega party, has a loyal electoral base of around 1,300,000 voters, but faces a high level of rejection in Portuguese society, which prevents him from claiming victory.

Precisely for this reason, Andre Ventura He presents himself as the candidate of protest and rupture, defending the need to “change the political system”, which he considers exhausted, in contrast to António José Segurowho “defends stability.”

The campaign of Ventura It focuses on appealing to the vote of the marginalized: suburban workers, young people who must emigrate to find employment or the victims of Storm Kristin.

In fact, the Chega leader has distributed bottles of water in the cities affected by the storm and was in Mem Martins — on the outskirts of Lisbon — on a street walk, where he declared: “This population feels many of the issues we address, such as increased crime or uncontrolled immigration.”

For this reason, it defends the toughening of criminal penalties and a profound review of the political regime, including changes in the Constitution or in the judicial system, which he wants to “make independent of the political system.”

He promises “change” and states that “Insurance “He will leave everything the same.” His speech focuses on anti-elite and anti-system rhetoric, capitalizing on social discontent, accentuated by the crisis caused by Storm Kristin.

For its part, António José Seguro He presents himself as the candidate of institutional stability and democratic consensus. Former leader of the Socialist Party, Seguro has built his candidacy around the defense of the rule of law, the Constitution and the moderating role of the President of the Republic.

He proposes one interventional presidencybut dialogue, focused on social cohesion, the reinforcement of public services and the protection of the most vulnerable.

His message is based on the idea of reconstruction and national unity in a moment of crisis, seeking to attract votes from both the left and the democratic center-right, in a clear contrast with the radicalism of Ventura.

While Ventura promises a presidency of confrontation with the Government and the institutions, Insurance is committed to an influential magistracy based on political and social dialogue, presenting itself as an experienced and predictable figure in a context of high political instability that affects the Assembly of the Republic and, therefore, the Government.

weakened government

In the first round of the presidential elections, the PSD Government supported the candidate Luís Marques Mendesa historic match, which obtained a result well below expectations (12%).

This electoral setback, added to the widespread criticism of the Executive’s response to the storm Kristinleft the Government politically exposed and under strong pressure.

The inability to prevent and manage the effects of the elements, with serious failures in the electricity supply and protection of the population, aggravated the wear and tear of the Executivewhich reaches the second round in a defensive position, dependent on the electoral result and the future relationship with the next president of the Republic — without publicly announcing his intention to vote, trying to guarantee negotiating stability in the Assembly of the Republic with the two main opposition forces: the PS and the Chega.

First round

In the first round of the presidential elections, on January 18, António José Seguro He was the candidate with the most votes, with 31.12% of the votes, far from the absolute majority but ensuring first place and passage to the second round. André Ventura came in second place, with 23.52%, confirming Chega’s electoral base and also ensuring its passage to the decisive phase of the scrutiny.

Behind the first two were João Cotrim from Figueiredofrom the Liberal Initiative, with 16.01%, and the Admiral Henrique Gouveia and Meloindependent supported by a fringe of the PSD (government party), which obtained 12.32%, both outside the second round despite significant expectations, especially among the center and democratic right-wing electorate.

Luís Marques Mendessupported by the PSD, did not exceed 11.30%, in a result considered politically negative for the Government, which largely suffered from a phenomenon that Luis Montenegro described it as “dispersion of votes to the right.”