Trump despises the last nuclear treaty signed with Russia and proposes negotiating another “improved” one and including China

The expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III or New START), which the president Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvédev signed in 2010, breaks precedent.

The Secretary General of the UN, António Guterresconsiders that “the risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades.”

The agreement that expired this Thursday, which has its roots in the Cold War, served to limit to 1,550 the number of strategic nuclear warheads that the parties could deploy on submarines, missiles and bombers.

The verification regime was strict. It consisted of inspections on sitedata exchanges and constant communication between the parties. Only the pandemic suspended the reviews, a impasse which Russia decided to extend after invading Ukraine.

The transparency mechanism stopped working. It became obsolete. That’s why, Donald Trump proposed this Thursday through a publication in Truth Social that, instead of extending the treaty, “we should have our nuclear experts work on a new, improved and modernized treaty that can last in the long term.”

The tenant of the White House despised New START, “an agreement poorly negotiated by the United States that, on top of everything else, is being seriously violated.”

Trump is not the only critic of the treaty, heir to SALT 1, SALT 2, START I, START II and SORT. The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossirecognizes that the last agreement, ratified in Prague sixteen years ago, aged quickly and poorly.

“There are new technologies that are not covered by the treaty: hypersonic missiles, underwater nuclear weapons, space weapons,” the Argentine diplomat explained this Thursday. “And there are many other countries that, for one reason or another, now feel that they may need a nuclear arsenal of their own.”

tug of war

The Russian president Vladimir Putin showed interest in extending the agreement for another year to continue negotiating. Your spokesperson, Dmitri Peskovrecalled this Thursday that the Kremlin was prepared to talk about “the limitation of offensive strategic weapons” as long as Washington responded “constructively.”

“Our ideas have been deliberately left unanswered,” lamented the Russian Foreign Ministry, which did not receive a response until the deadline.

This Wednesday, on the margins of the peace process between Russians and Ukrainians in Abu Dhabi, the parties sat down to negotiate. The talks ended well into the early morning, and did not have “the active participation” of State Department officials specialized in arms control, according to the digital Axios.

The Chinese factor

The United States and Russia have the two largest nuclear arsenals in the world. Between both countries, they accumulate more than 80% of the existing nuclear warheads, according to estimates.

China appears behind. The presence of Beijing on the list explains, in a way, Trump’s evasions when negotiating the renewal of New START with Russia.

“Obviously, the president has been clear in the past that, to have true arms control in the 21st century, it is impossible to do anything that does not include China because of its vast and rapidly growing arsenal,” his Secretary of State declared this Wednesday, Marco Rubio.

In the “long and deep” phone call that the White House tenant had on Wednesday with Xi Jinping They could well have discussed this issue, but neither party mentioned the issue and others did, such as the current situation in Iran, the war in Ukraine or the sale of arms to Taiwan.

At the moment, Beijing has no interest in signing any agreement regarding nuclear weapons. The Chinese president knows that his arsenal is inferior—it has about 600 warheads, compared to the 4,000 accumulated by Russia and the United States—but he is advancing at cruising speed. US intelligence services estimate that there will be more than 1,000 by 2023.

China called the expiration of START III “really regrettable.” “The treaty is vital for global strategic stability,” declared the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

“And there is widespread concern about the impact it will have on the international nuclear arms control system and the global nuclear order,” he concluded.