I remember when I was in Taipei visiting the Memorial of Chiang Kai-shek, the Chinese nationalist leader who lost the civil war against the communist Mao Zedong and took refuge in Taiwan in 1949. It was interesting to see everything from the uniform that the generalissimo wore in the war against the Japanese, to the reconstruction of his work office, and bulletproof cars. But if the president of the Kuomintang, the nationalist party also known as KMT, were resurrected, he would be surprised at what the island officially called the Republic of China is today. The reform process that began after his death in 1975 has evolved so dramatically in recent years that Taiwan is not only a democracy today but is governed by a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which, just out of fear of Beijing’s reaction, and uncertain about American support in the event of war, does not move forward with a declaration of independence. Increasingly, first under the presidency of Tsai Ing-wen and now with Lai Ching-te, the island is trying to assert itself as Taiwan, claiming that despite the Chinese culture of the overwhelming majority of the 23 million Taiwanese there is a strong sense of identity and a desire to follow their own path.
Surprisingly, perhaps if the resurrected Chiang visited the current People’s Republic of China he would feel more at home. The country may even be officially communist, but what is evident is that there is a strong centralized power, embodied by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which commands a successful semi-capitalist economy. Change the PCC to the KMT and perhaps you won’t be very far from what Chiang, who was always a dictator, would have idealized for China if he had not been defeated, as he maintained the idea of one day disembarking his troops on the Continent and beginning the reconquest.
Chiang was not resurrected. But his successors at the head of the KMT also seem to be seduced by what the People’s Republic of China, today the world’s second largest economy, has achieved. A delegation from the KMT, now Taiwan’s largest opposition party, participated in a forum in Beijing together with representatives from the CCP, a demonstration of willingness to cooperate that angered Taiwanese authorities, who view China as hostile and have not forgotten the recent military exercises around the island.
“Although mainland China and Taiwan have different political systems, the people on both sides belong to the same nation, are descendants of Emperor Yan and the Yellow Emperor, and should support each other and cooperate to revitalize China,” said KMT Vice Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen, to Taipei’s even greater displeasure. On Beijing’s side, the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese State Council, Song Tao, recalled that secessionism will not be tolerated.
This visit by the KMT’s number two could be the general rehearsal for a meeting between the party president, Cheng Li-wun, and Xi Jinping himself, Chinese president and also general secretary of the CCP. Since 2015, with the Ma Ying-jeou – Xi Jinping summit in Singapore, meeting as party leaders, there have been regular contacts between leaders of the KMT and the CCP, including a visit to Beijing in 2024 by former Taiwanese president Ma himself, also criticized at the time by the Taipei government.
It is clear that the KMT’s attitude shows that there is no consensus in Taiwan about the advantages of a separate path. It could be out of true belief in the ideal of Chinese reunification, as Chiang had, or out of mere pragmatism in the face of Beijing’s threats of reunification by force. Also among DPP supporters there are many people who prefer the status quo, that is, this undefined situation that allows Taiwan its own existence, but without a formal declaration of independence and without a seat at the UN. Despite losing diplomatic allies in the last decade, due to China’s actions, Taiwan has gained support for the construction of a democratic and prosperous society (the average income per inhabitant is well above that of the 1400 million Chinese people). And just recently the island, and the flag that comes from the KMT era of power in mainland China, got global exposure thanks to American Alex Honnold’s Taipei 101 climb, broadcast on Netflix.
The difficulties experienced by the “one country, two systems” formula in force in Hong Kong and Macau, territories returned by the United Kingdom and Portugal in the late 1990s, prevent it from serving as the basis for a negotiated reunification with Taiwan, a much more complex historical issue. But nothing prevents other ways from emerging to relaunch a constructive relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, which allows each side to maintain its medium-term objectives, preserving the status quo, and above all avoiding war. Despite Taiwan’s military strength and the sale of American weapons, the imbalance vis-à-vis China in the event of an open conflict is enormous, being very dependent on the American reaction. But what good would a reconquest of Taiwan be for China, which would bring the destruction of the island and also parts of Mainland China, in addition to a possible war with the United States and the destabilization of all of East Asia?
In a telephone conversation this week, Xi warned Donald Trump of the risks of selling weapons to Taiwan, a reference to a recent contract worth 11 billion dollars. The American president has been adopting an attitude of greater dialogue with China and it will be interesting to see what results from the visit scheduled for two months from now. Another visit to Beijing to be followed closely in Taipei, in order to calibrate the direction of its international affirmation strategy. However, the Taiwanese president has already said that relations with the United States “are solid as a rock.”
Mao died in 1976, half a century ago this year. Chiang in 1975. But the conflict caused by the fight between them for China remains unresolved.
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