Like many of you, I am not crying over the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro He was languishing in a Brooklyn jail. Right now, I fear that the Cuban tyranny might collapse because of the gift of oil from Venezuela.
But I’m more interested in the president Donald Trump if consistent with the acceptance of “tolerable” dictatorships in Havana and Caracas, prioritizing stability through democratic reforms.
Many politicians in Washington and in the Venezuelan diaspora tell me that with each passing day the president is reincarnated. Delcy Rodriguez (Maduro’s former vice president) is consolidating more power with Trump’s support.
To be sure, Trump has said he hopes to prevail over his opponent María Corina Machado in their planes, which echoes the previous comment that Machado doesn’t have “apoyo” or “respect” in Venezuela.
But Trump has made it very clear that he will mainly work with Rodriguez on the government of Venezuela in the near future. He called her a “great person” and Casa Blanca will tell you that you will be invited to Washington DC soon.
Trump has a long history of lashing out at authoritarian leaders who celebrate him, regardless of whether they respect democracy or not. He demonstrated it, among other things, with dictators Vladimir Putin from Russia Kim Jong Un de North Korea y Viktor Orbán de Hungary.
United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Reuters
According to Trump, he decided to fall for Rodríguez because she would cooperate with the United States. Trump’s priority in Venezuela (oil) is to maintain stability, especially ahead of November’s congressional elections in the United States.
The big question is that Rodriguez is not involved with Trump, pretending to work with him to buy time and consolidate the regime’s power.
In a statement that was almost lost amid his praise for Trump, opposition leader Machado advised state lawmakers on Jan. 16 that “the regime is always trying to buy time.”
Cuba could play a simple game. Faced with the worst crisis in decades and the pain of losing Venezuela’s oil, the Cuban regime could feign sudden pragmatism to appease Trump and hope he’s gone in 2028.
Antonio Ledezmainternational policy coordinator from Machado and exalcalde from Caracas, was careful not to criticize Trump when he met with him a few days ago. However, I think that Rodríguez’s election of the United States is an “inmediatist solution” to avoid chaos, and that stability will not be achieved unless there is a solid democratic system.
Ledezma agreed with Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia (the challenger who won the Maduro-dominated 2024 presidential election) must be part of an urgent transition plan.
However, at the time I wrote this line three weeks after Maduro’s capture, Trump still hadn’t spoken de efforts to gradually restore basic freedoms in Venezuela.
John BoltonTrump’s national security adviser told me that Trump made a grave mistake by keeping Rodríguez in power.
“Delcy, on Hermano. Jorge (President of the National Assembly), Diosdado Cabello (Minister of the Interior) y Vladimir Godfather (Secretary of Defense) I am not prepared to negotiate your return and exile to Cuba,” Bolton told me.
Brothers Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez joined Diosdado Cabello.
Reuters
“I seek to reassert power and consolidate my command.
Bolton added that “we may lose power, but we’re losing that capacity every day.”
Indeed, the weather is in Rodríguez’s favor, as United States warships are unlikely to be able to dock off the coast of Venezuela forever. And without that naval fleet, Trump’s power over the Venezuelan regime will quickly diminish.
According to military experts, the giant aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will be quickly retired from the Caribbean, and the sea for repair or to return to the Mediterranean.
That means Trump’s ability to maintain a presence over Venezuela by blocking its oil exports will diminish, according to the monthly questions.
Absent a strong Congressional presence, I fear Trump will sing victory and submit to a “tolerable” dictate in Venezuela, and we’ll soon be asking another in Cuba.
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