The fentanyl epidemic plaguing the United States began to raise alarm bells in 2020, when Washington linked the increase in overdose deaths to the operation of Mexican cartels and the shipment of chemical precursors from China. Despite American claims and the first efforts of the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the crisis did not subside: in 2022 the most critical point was reached, with almost 74,000 overdose deaths related to this synthetic opioid.
The substantive change occurred between 2024 and 2025, in the transition from López Obrador’s six-year term to the beginning of Claudia Sheinbaum’s mandate. For the first time in years, the flow of fentanyl into the United States and associated deaths began to decline steadily, a trend confirmed by the UN in mid-2025.
TRUMP’S PRESSURE AND THE TRADE FACTOR
Donald Trump’s return to the White House, in January 2025, marked a turning point. The Republican president increased the pressure on Mexico and conditioned the relief of tariffs on concrete results in security, migration and the fight against drug trafficking. The agreement led to a military reinforcement of the border and a direct offensive against drug trafficking, with fentanyl as a priority.
In this context, Operation Northern Border was born, the axis of the Sheinbaum Government’s strategy. The objective was clear: to hit the criminal organizations that supply the US market, in particular the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel.
FIGURES THAT SUPPORT THE STRATEGY
One year after its implementation, the results are overwhelming. Since October 2024, Mexican security forces have seized 1.8 tons of fentanyl, destroyed almost 1,900 clandestine laboratories and arrested nearly 41,000 people allegedly linked to organized crime, including high-profile leaders. Added to this are expeditious extraditions of bosses to the United States.
The Army alone seized more than 559 kilos of fentanyl in 2025, 65% more than in 2024. Seizures of methamphetamine, heroin and opium gum also increased significantly. The biggest blow came in December 2024, when the Navy seized 1.5 tons of fentanyl, the largest seizure recorded in Mexico.
LESS DRUGS, LESS DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES
The impact was reflected on the other side of the border. In 2025, the US Border Patrol seized 4.5 tons of fentanyl, 52% less than the previous year. Overdose deaths also fell: in 2024, 47,735 deaths were recorded, 35% less than in 2022, the lowest figure since 2019.
Not all drugs followed the same trend. While fentanyl and cocaine decreased, seizures of methamphetamine and marijuana increased, suggesting a reconfiguration of the illicit market rather than its total dismantling.
MIGRATION AND VIOLENCE: COLLATERAL EFFECTS
The strategy also impacted irregular migration. In 2025, Mexico detained 95% fewer migrants than the previous year and arrests at the US border fell 88%. Although the tightening of Trump’s immigration policy explains a good part of the phenomenon, the deployment of 10,000 members of the National Guard on the Mexican border was a determining factor.
Domestically, intentional homicides in Mexico fell to 22,415 in 2025, 27% less than in 2024 and the lowest figure in a decade. The change in focus—from deterrence to the use of force with intelligence and coordination—marked a distance from the “hugs, not bullets” policy of the previous administration.
PENDING JOINT RESPONSIBILITY
Despite the results, Washington recently described the progress as “gradual” and “unacceptable.” Sheinbaum, in response, has stressed that Mexico has fulfilled its part of the agreement and has demanded greater co-responsibility from the United States, particularly in the dismantling of internal distribution networks and in the prevention of addictions.
With the reduction of fentanyl trafficking and irregular migration, Trump’s discourse—which attributes internal problems to external factors—now faces an obvious limit. The crisis, although attenuated, continues to be shared.
With information from El País
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