José Ángel Cruz Morales doesn’t expect numbers, but that’s what happens to him. Applied mathematician, data collector and modeler at heart in the world of online gamingBorn in 1985, this Mexican moves with the same ease between Bayesian equations and ethical debates about regulation and responsible gaming. Jose Angel Cruz Morales send a clear warning: The models in this sector are not as objective as they seem. In this interview we talk about dates, interests, deportations and regulations.
We quote the title sentence. Why do you say data is not neutral?
“Because it’s not that simple. Data is always created in context.” Someone decides where the day will go, how the day will go and where the day will goy eso ya represents sesgo. In the online gaming and sports model sector, models are designed to maximize profitability, not to mention universal truths. The problem is when they are sold as “objectives” or “scientific” without explaining the specific interests.
You are starting from pure mathematics. At what point does criticism come in?
“Just to come from ahí. I’m studying.” Applied Mathematics at UNAMwith high probability, statistics and stochastic processes. Luego hice una mastery in data science at ITAMI am very business oriented and I am a financier. Oh, he understood a model is never reality, it is a representation. When you work on it sports games or online casinosthis representation has real consequences.’
Work as a heart modeler. Isn’t it contradictory to criticize the system from within?
“No, on the contrary. If you don’t know it from the inside, it’s just superficial criticism. I’m modeling the heart in it.” BetInsight LabsI analyze markets, caliber probabilities… and just figure out where the tricks, top secrets and gray areas are. Criticizing does not mean compromising the technique, but requires responsibility for its use.”
What interests are usually hidden behind the models?
“Primarily economic, but also regulatory and political. For example, an operator can adjust the model to reduce exposure to risk in certain categories of players, but sell it as ‘consumer protection’. justify aggressive practices.” Data is converted to forcingnot in honest analysis.”
Is this only happening in Mexico or is it a global problem?
“It’s global, but it’s more common in Mexico because of a mistake in clear regulation. Posgrado en Regulación y Complimiento Digital and Carlos III de Madridand the discussion progressed further. Here we are still in the “let’s say the market is self-regulating” phase, which is naive.
Date range issues. What role does it play in all this?
“Basic paper, but also dangerous if it’s made badly. El data journalism I must serve as a lover disarmar discursosnot to strengthen them. In the gaming sector, I see a lot of “periodical” reports that are actually marketing with graphics. The journalist keeps asking: where does the data come from?, where is it from?, who benefits from this reading?
Have you encountered resistance to publishing critical analysis?
“Still. You have to call out from the awkward silence ‘yeah, you better turn it down.'” But that’s normal. When a predictive model hits a million, it’s annoying. It’s troubling when criticism is dismissed by saying, “If it’s very technical, people won’t understand.” That’s the worst argument.”
Do you think the public understands these topics?
“Sure, yes, they explain well. You don’t have to show the full Bayesian formula to explain it.” the heart does not only reflect the probability, but also the trading strategy. The problem is the lack of desire for transparency.”
What’s the biggest mistake you’ve seen with sports bike models?
“Many things. Sobreajuste, unbelievable supuestos, wrongly contextualized historical data… but the most serious is ignore human behavior. Models take rational players and do not exist. People are filled with emotions, emotions, imaginary thoughts. If not integrated, the model is elegant but incomplete.”
Are you in charge of the game? Are the models helping or extorting?
“It depends on how you use it. It can go a long way in detecting readers who may be aging, but it can also be used to prevent optimize the player’s gas until it looks like abuse. Ahí está la linea ética. If you expose a vulnerability and use it to buy promotions, you’re looking at a very serious line.”
Do you consider yourself more of a mathematician, journalist or investigator?
“A rare hybrid. I feel good saying I am.” specialized data analyst in iGamingbut with hard training in education and economics. This allows me to speak to engineers, regulators and the general public without changing my mental idiom.”
What would you say to someone who blindly believes in numbers?
“That’s a little more. The numbers are not given, they only speak. Always have someone to whisper to you as you decide. Ask this guy, this is the first step to hearing the whole discussion.’
To find out: what is the future of the sector in Mexico?
“The future will inevitably be more regulated and more vigilant play online it will continue to grow, it’s nice. The question is whether you will have it with you opaque and extraction models or with responsible analysts and clear grades. Ahí is where journalists, investigators and regulators need to measure the pressure.”
Do you have paper in this future?
“Continue to trouble the data. Explainer, translator, stimulus.” If models have power, someone has to watch over them. If the data have due care and interests, the minimum must be reported.”
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