The pharmaceutical sector is already preparing for a production slowdown in 2026, depending on maintaining solid capital, solvency and liquidity.
The Credit and Deposit test predicts a percentage point, with output expected to reach just 1.6% – short of the 9.1% increase seen in 2025, led by expectations of purchases around the new tariffs.
Commercial uncertainty is one risk. As the United States has granted exemptions to many large manufacturers and a tariff agreement exists with some countries, they continue to support new growth: the President’s announcement of a 100% tax on non-EU branded drugs will keep companies on their toes and you can create real productive sites.
Also weighing on the future of the sector is patent expiration. Leading drugs in oncology, immunology and metabolism will lose exclusivity in the next few years – with as many as 15 valuable patents expiring in the next decade – or tend to narrow formularies and increase competition from generics.
In addition, our short-term health policies in some countries may reduce investment in I&D, which is essential for the development of new medicines. In Europe, there is a significant slowdown in expectations: after atypical growth in 2025 based on advance sales, production will have to moderate to 3.7% in 2026.
The public prosecutor’s office for a long time will be maintained favorably, supported by popular developments. Also, price pressures, relocation of investments for EUA and China and the need for strategic adjustments – such as factory relocation or margin compression – provide economic information relevant to companies in the industry.
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