The Buffalo Bills have clinched a playoff spot for the seventh straight season, but their final seed and opponent are unknowns heading into Week 18.
As it currently stands, the Bills hold the AFC’s No. 7 seed. If the season ended today, Buffalo would head on the road against the New England Patriots. Buffalo and New England may meet for the third time this season, but that depends on the outcome of other games this weekend.
Here’s everything you need to know in Week 18.
Current AFC Playoff standings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The Denver Broncos currently hold the top seed in the AFC. The Patriots and Jaguars can claim the No. 1 seed this weekend, but that door only opens for New England and Jacksonville with a loss in Denver.
Denver’s Week 18 opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, have already announced that starting quarterback Justin Herbert will not play this weekend, so the Broncos remain the heavy favorite to claim the AFC’s top seed and get a first-round bye.
Denver and New England are the only two teams to have their division clinched heading into the final week of the season. Jacksonville needs a win or a Texans loss to clinch their division this weekend, while the Steelers and Ravens will play for the division in a winner-takes-all game.
As for the Bills, the team can still claim the No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Here’s how:
AFC No. 5 seed
- The Bills beat the Jets
- The Colts beat the Texans
- The Broncos beat the Chargers
The Chargers seem more than content to lose this weekend and drop to seventh. Whether they prioritize health or think the Patriots are a favorable matchup, the Chargers’ backups likely won’t beat the Broncos’ starters.
While the halfway point is there for Buffalo, the Colts are starting Riley Leonard at quarterback this weekend against the Texans. Don’t hold your breath for the Colts to knock off the Texans with their rookie.
Claiming the No. 5 seed looked promising when the Steelers appeared to win the AFC North, but whoever lands could end up with the Ravens during Wild Card Weekend.
AFC No. 6 seed
- The Bills beat the Jets
- Texans or Chargers loss
There is also an unlikely scenario where the Bills win, the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the Texans beat the Colts and the Chargers beat the Broncos.
In this scenario, the Texans claim the AFC South and Buffalo claims the No. 6 seed over Jacksonville based on strength of wins/strength of schedule.
With the Chargers sticking with Herbert and likely other starters, that scenario could play out. Buffalo, as it stands, would go on the road to face the Jaguars if there are no upsets between the AFC’s top three teams.
AFC No. 7 seed
A Bills loss to the Jets would ensure Buffalo remains the AFC’s seventh seed.
The No. 7 seed would guarantee Buffalo no home playoff games, while the No. 5 seed keeps the door open even if the conference has more upsets throughout the playoffs. That said, if Buffalo feels comfortable going into Game 3 against the Patriots, resting the starters and playing predictable football in Week 18 could be Buffalo’s path to that scenario.
A win over New England would then mean a trip to Denver to face the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
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